***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 13.2 123.0 67.5 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.3 14.2 134.7 69.0 60.0 2.1 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.0 16.1 12.9 120.1 66.8 56.0 5.6 8.2 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.8 11.5 102.7 60.0 51.3 5.8 11.4 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.3 12.2 111.3 62.7 52.5 7.1 12.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 12.4 11.2 96.9 59.3 51.8 5.1 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.8 15.2 14.4 138.6 70.0 60.7 2.7 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.7 21.6 13.6 115.0 65.3 54.6 9.2 14.3 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.6 13.0 115.6 62.8 53.6 6.9 9.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.8 14.3 13.7 115.1 63.8 54.3 4.7 11.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.6 11.5 109.3 64.0 53.2 5.3 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.6 14.0 11.5 109.3 64.9 54.5 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.5 15.8 11.5 106.1 62.1 54.4 6.1 10.8 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.6 18.6 15.6 119.5 65.7 56.2 6.6 13.9 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.4 10.4 90.9 58.9 50.2 1.6 6.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.9 10.9 104.5 61.6 53.2 5.2 8.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.5 15.5 14.5 139.5 72.0 61.2 3.7 4.6 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.0 12.2 15.5 118.7 64.3 55.7 5.1 9.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.7 13.9 128.5 67.5 58.7 2.5 8.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 18.0 18.9 125.0 67.9 56.6 4.8 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.5 12.7 116.0 64.8 54.0 4.7 8.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.9 12.6 14.6 134.1 69.5 60.2 1.8 5.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.2 12.0 13.7 119.6 65.4 56.7 2.3 8.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.5 14.3 116.0 64.9 54.9 5.7 16.5 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.6 17.1 13.9 116.8 67.9 55.8 4.5 8.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.8 13.1 11.2 102.5 66.2 54.5 3.9 7.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.9 14.3 124.1 68.9 57.9 4.1 5.9 10.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.5 10.3 93.1 57.6 49.8 2.7 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.7 18.8 17.3 121.8 65.0 56.3 8.1 14.4 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.7 13.9 131.2 67.9 59.1 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------