***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 118.0 60.6 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.9 17.2 14.5 144.9 72.1 64.7 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.1 14.5 13.0 125.4 62.0 59.4 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.4 11.8 94.0 54.4 50.4 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.0 11.7 92.6 52.9 49.1 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.6 11.7 82.2 47.1 44.6 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 11.6 18.5 14.5 142.5 67.5 64.2 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.6 14.4 104.2 61.0 53.9 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.2 12.1 96.8 53.2 49.7 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.7 13.4 100.3 57.9 51.5 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.1 10.9 86.7 52.9 46.5 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.5 8.5 12.0 93.7 56.5 50.0 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.3 11.9 88.7 52.1 47.4 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.1 19.8 15.6 131.2 69.2 60.0 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.0 12.6 98.2 59.9 53.5 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.0 7.4 10.6 81.9 50.7 44.7 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 13.6 16.9 14.9 154.0 77.3 66.5 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.8 15.7 112.7 66.4 55.4 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 18.1 23.2 14.5 144.3 72.0 64.5 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 16.7 18.0 22.9 135.1 75.0 64.9 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.2 12.1 104.0 56.8 52.8 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 14.8 17.5 15.8 159.7 76.6 68.0 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.6 15.2 14.5 139.8 71.7 63.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.4 14.3 119.9 65.9 57.0 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.0 14.9 13.4 110.8 57.4 56.0 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.2 13.1 97.5 57.3 52.0 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.7 12.9 13.6 119.1 61.0 58.7 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.9 7.2 11.2 86.6 53.7 48.1 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.1 20.7 18.9 126.4 72.4 60.8 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 10.0 17.8 14.0 138.5 66.5 63.1 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------