***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 105.2 61.3 53.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.6 11.2 101.4 61.0 52.8 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.7 12.8 104.8 63.5 53.3 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 13.5 15.0 17.4 134.2 73.3 63.9 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.2 16.7 16.5 119.9 66.8 59.3 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 17.1 16.2 17.1 127.7 69.4 63.6 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.7 10.5 97.6 58.6 52.3 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.6 17.4 17.4 115.5 65.2 58.2 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.2 15.6 114.1 64.2 56.9 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.1 14.4 16.9 115.8 65.3 57.8 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.1 13.6 16.6 119.0 66.8 59.0 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.5 12.8 16.8 119.3 67.3 59.4 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.0 18.0 17.1 119.4 65.4 60.0 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.7 14.9 102.0 63.1 53.8 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 16.8 20.7 19.5 166.2 78.5 70.9 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.1 14.8 16.2 116.5 66.3 58.7 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 9.3 11.3 11.0 105.3 62.3 54.5 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.7 16.9 112.2 63.6 57.0 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.8 11.9 102.4 61.2 52.7 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 16.5 18.8 104.3 61.7 55.2 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.7 14.1 108.5 64.1 55.0 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.7 7.9 12.1 106.3 62.2 53.6 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.5 12.7 101.5 59.8 52.3 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.9 11.9 15.4 109.8 63.0 56.4 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.2 15.2 14.8 111.5 63.2 55.2 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 16.7 18.5 17.9 128.5 69.2 63.4 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.7 13.0 103.4 58.6 52.8 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.0 17.3 18.3 148.2 74.4 67.5 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.3 21.5 17.2 107.5 62.3 55.7 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.3 11.4 102.0 61.0 53.0 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------