***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 0.6 60.6 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.6 3.5 0.9 63.3 62.1 2.0 3.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.0 7.3 4.2 1.1 67.7 64.7 4.0 5.2 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 54.5 53.5 -0.9 1.3 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.8 2.6 0.7 63.2 60.2 3.2 4.3 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 5.8 5.4 2.0 0.9 65.9 62.4 3.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.9 4.3 3.2 0.8 63.4 61.1 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.1 68.3 65.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.5 3.8 1.1 67.7 64.6 3.7 5.3 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.4 3.4 1.2 68.7 65.7 2.9 4.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.7 2.8 1.0 66.6 62.9 3.1 4.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.3 3.0 1.2 69.0 65.4 3.9 4.8 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.7 2.7 1.2 66.0 65.4 3.1 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 7.9 8.5 4.9 1.9 78.7 73.1 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.5 1.3 -0.1 49.1 49.7 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.8 7.0 2.5 1.0 65.8 62.9 3.7 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.1 4.9 3.7 1.2 68.5 66.3 1.8 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.3 3.5 1.3 72.8 67.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.0 4.0 1.2 66.1 65.0 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.0 1.6 0.9 63.7 62.7 -0.4 2.4 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.7 4.0 1.1 66.7 64.0 3.6 4.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.6 4.3 1.6 72.2 70.2 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.6 4.7 1.6 73.8 69.6 2.8 4.0 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.8 4.6 1.6 77.1 70.5 4.3 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.7 2.2 0.5 56.7 57.0 2.5 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.3 2.5 1.2 71.3 66.9 3.1 4.7 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.8 2.8 0.5 58.5 57.8 3.4 4.1 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.7 1.5 0.1 54.4 53.4 3.1 4.3 7.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.6 4.1 2.8 1.2 69.8 66.2 0.9 2.4 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.1 3.5 0.8 61.4 60.6 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------