***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 4.7 2.1 67.8 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.8 4.5 2.3 68.2 64.4 0.6 4.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 6.4 8.6 5.2 2.4 70.8 64.9 1.7 5.8 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.7 2.3 2.5 1.6 64.2 61.3 -2.0 1.1 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.0 3.6 2.0 67.0 63.4 1.8 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 7.3 5.9 2.9 2.1 67.3 64.0 2.2 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.0 4.3 2.2 66.2 64.2 0.1 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.8 0.6 3.5 2.1 67.4 63.8 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.6 4.8 2.4 68.2 65.0 2.6 5.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 6.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 66.9 64.3 2.6 5.2 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.7 3.8 2.2 69.6 64.7 2.5 4.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.5 3.8 2.3 70.2 65.2 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.1 6.9 3.4 2.3 67.7 65.3 2.1 5.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 8.1 8.8 5.1 2.4 68.5 64.4 2.8 5.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.8 5.8 2.5 1.6 64.3 61.1 1.4 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.2 3.4 2.2 69.0 64.7 2.9 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 5.3 5.1 4.5 2.3 68.7 65.5 0.4 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.9 4.0 2.2 67.2 63.0 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 6.4 7.5 4.9 2.4 69.8 65.0 0.8 4.1 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.7 4.6 2.1 1.6 63.5 59.8 -1.0 1.9 4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.6 8.4 5.0 2.4 69.8 65.0 2.1 5.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.1 7.3 4.9 2.5 70.1 66.4 1.0 3.7 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 6.1 7.2 5.4 2.5 70.6 65.4 1.1 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 8.2 9.2 5.1 2.4 69.6 64.5 3.6 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.3 6.0 3.1 1.8 66.4 62.2 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.7 3.2 2.3 68.8 65.9 2.3 4.2 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.3 7.5 3.9 1.9 66.1 62.7 1.9 4.6 7.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.5 2.8 1.8 65.5 62.1 1.2 5.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 3.0 4.9 3.2 2.0 66.2 61.7 0.4 2.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.2 66.9 63.7 0.1 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------