***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 1.4 60.9 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 6.5 5.0 4.6 1.8 67.8 66.5 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.6 5.6 2.4 73.7 69.0 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.4 1.9 0.7 57.2 57.4 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 7.2 6.4 3.6 1.8 67.6 64.2 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.6 3.3 2.1 73.7 66.5 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 6.1 4.9 4.3 1.6 64.9 65.5 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.6 1.3 4.1 2.5 73.4 69.1 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.3 9.7 5.3 2.6 75.6 68.6 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 7.3 8.4 4.9 2.7 75.4 69.9 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.4 8.2 4.1 2.3 74.2 66.8 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.3 8.3 4.3 2.5 75.7 69.3 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 7.6 8.3 4.0 2.6 75.6 69.6 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.3 9.7 6.5 3.5 80.1 74.7 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.9 1.7 0.3 54.6 54.1 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.4 3.7 2.2 72.6 66.5 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.1 4.9 2.2 74.8 68.9 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.7 5.9 5.1 2.9 74.7 71.5 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.3 5.3 2.3 71.7 68.7 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.1 65.3 67.1 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.8 9.0 5.4 2.4 75.1 68.0 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 6.8 7.7 5.6 2.7 79.0 71.2 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.9 6.2 3.0 78.4 72.2 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.1 9.7 6.2 3.3 79.4 73.3 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.3 4.3 2.9 1.1 61.0 60.5 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 6.4 7.0 3.9 2.5 74.7 70.2 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.1 3.6 1.2 60.4 61.1 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.5 2.1 0.8 58.6 57.2 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 3.6 4.5 4.2 2.7 71.1 70.5 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.4 5.1 4.5 1.6 64.6 65.2 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------