***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.9 -1.7 26.1 30.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.3 1.1 -1.2 30.4 34.9 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.2 3.6 1.8 -1.0 38.7 39.5 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -1.3 -2.1 -1.5 -2.1 25.0 28.3 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.8 2.5 0.3 -1.4 35.1 35.9 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.2 2.6 -0.2 -1.3 32.9 36.2 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.3 1.4 0.7 -1.4 25.2 31.9 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.6 -1.1 0.9 -0.6 42.6 43.8 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.2 1.4 -1.1 38.6 39.3 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.7 3.2 1.3 -0.7 42.8 43.2 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.9 3.0 0.6 -1.2 36.0 37.8 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 4.9 3.8 0.8 -0.9 40.9 41.3 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.7 3.5 1.0 -0.9 41.2 40.8 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.2 8.0 3.9 0.9 63.6 60.6 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.8 -1.3 -3.0 21.4 21.8 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.7 3.5 0.4 -1.2 35.9 37.2 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.8 2.7 1.7 -0.4 41.2 44.6 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.3 1.7 1.8 -0.3 47.6 48.3 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.6 2.9 1.7 -0.8 37.7 40.4 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.2 0.3 0.3 -0.5 40.5 43.6 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.5 1.5 -1.2 36.9 37.9 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 3.9 3.4 2.7 0.3 52.7 52.7 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.4 2.7 0.0 50.8 50.5 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.0 3.0 0.2 54.4 53.9 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.1 0.1 -1.5 29.1 32.8 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.7 3.7 0.7 -0.6 42.6 43.7 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 2.7 0.6 -1.5 26.7 31.4 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.3 -1.2 -2.5 24.1 26.3 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 1.6 0.8 1.3 -0.3 45.9 47.4 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.5 1.9 0.9 -1.5 28.2 32.3 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------