***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.3 1.0 56.9 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -1.2 -1.4 1.2 56.0 60.6 -3.9 -2.2 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 0.4 1.5 -1.4 1.2 58.4 60.7 -2.3 -0.4 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -4.6 -4.8 -4.4 1.0 52.8 57.4 -8.0 -5.6 -2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -2.0 -3.7 1.1 53.8 58.1 -5.0 -2.2 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -3.4 -2.9 -5.3 1.2 55.6 59.5 -6.6 -3.9 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -0.6 -1.4 1.1 56.8 60.1 -3.7 -2.4 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -6.4 -6.5 -4.3 1.2 53.8 58.8 -8.5 -7.1 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.6 -2.6 1.2 54.5 59.3 -4.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -1.7 -3.7 1.2 53.4 58.8 -4.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.2 -3.8 1.2 54.1 58.9 -5.1 -2.4 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -2.8 -3.9 1.4 55.1 59.8 -7.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.2 -4.3 1.4 56.6 59.8 -5.3 -3.2 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -0.2 -0.2 -2.6 1.3 54.8 60.1 -3.0 -0.5 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -2.2 -3.9 1.1 53.0 58.9 -5.0 -2.6 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -1.6 -1.6 -4.3 1.2 55.4 59.4 -4.2 -2.0 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -1.3 -1.3 1.3 56.6 60.6 -4.0 -2.5 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -3.7 -3.9 -4.2 1.2 52.0 58.1 -6.5 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4 1.2 56.8 61.1 -3.8 -2.0 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -7.1 -7.8 -5.5 1.0 51.4 56.9 -11.0 -7.9 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -0.9 -1.8 1.2 56.9 59.7 -4.4 -1.4 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -1.4 -1.2 1.3 58.1 61.2 -3.9 -2.6 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -1.3 -1.0 -1.5 1.3 56.8 61.6 -3.7 -1.7 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -1.3 -2.8 1.3 54.2 59.9 -3.7 -1.5 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.3 1.0 53.8 57.6 -3.8 -1.8 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 -2.4 -2.3 -4.1 1.2 56.4 60.1 -5.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.1 -2.2 1.0 54.8 57.8 -4.2 -2.7 0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -2.3 -4.2 1.1 54.8 58.6 -6.2 -3.6 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -3.2 -3.4 -4.8 1.1 52.9 57.9 -7.9 -3.8 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -0.5 -1.4 1.1 56.7 60.3 -3.2 -2.6 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------