***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 21.6 22.4 33.0 72.7 30.4 33.7 23.4 27.2 55.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 24.4 25.6 30.8 76.7 36.4 37.8 24.7 33.9 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 32.7 34.1 33.4 73.7 32.6 34.1 34.3 43.1 57.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 32.4 39.8 41.6 82.2 39.8 40.5 32.8 42.2 50.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 35.9 43.1 39.1 77.7 34.6 35.8 43.0 48.3 60.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 42.5 33.8 38.2 82.0 40.4 39.4 30.5 37.8 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 25.7 30.0 29.7 75.7 35.4 37.1 26.5 35.8 46.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 44.3 53.4 44.4 83.3 37.8 39.2 51.2 60.0 70.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 26.3 24.8 38.8 75.9 31.4 34.3 25.0 37.5 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 32.8 35.1 42.1 78.6 33.0 35.9 35.1 47.3 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 32.8 33.9 38.9 78.4 33.9 36.1 33.7 42.7 52.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 30.2 30.3 39.6 81.3 35.9 37.7 28.6 41.8 49.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 35.4 38.1 39.6 77.7 34.7 35.1 37.5 45.5 59.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 39.6 43.8 44.1 79.1 34.6 36.7 42.5 51.7 64.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.6 42.3 40.1 83.1 43.3 42.3 25.4 43.9 51.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 30.6 32.1 38.6 79.4 35.7 36.9 31.1 40.8 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.1 27.7 30.4 78.9 39.7 39.7 24.2 35.2 44.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 30.5 31.1 43.9 78.4 33.4 36.3 31.0 40.9 48.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 26.8 26.4 32.2 77.4 36.6 37.6 23.0 37.1 50.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 39.2 51.0 60.1 89.3 45.1 43.5 36.3 53.9 61.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 30.9 31.1 36.2 73.6 30.8 33.2 31.4 43.8 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 26.0 28.3 33.8 82.7 42.7 41.4 25.7 33.0 44.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 25.9 26.7 34.9 77.7 36.3 37.0 25.4 33.4 44.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 35.0 38.8 39.9 75.7 32.1 34.8 39.0 47.7 56.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 29.3 27.2 39.0 75.5 31.1 34.9 27.3 44.0 58.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 25.6 29.9 40.6 83.2 39.2 39.5 29.1 32.6 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 23.3 22.5 35.0 73.5 30.5 34.0 23.8 31.7 60.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 25.9 29.8 39.8 83.4 41.6 41.7 27.8 32.3 45.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 52.0 54.9 49.1 82.7 37.6 39.4 50.9 69.5 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 24.2 25.1 31.2 75.7 34.7 36.7 23.7 36.8 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------