***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.4 10.7 111.6 61.5 52.8 1.0 3.6 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.7 6.7 9.4 114.3 64.6 55.2 1.0 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.6 10.8 113.3 64.5 52.6 2.5 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.4 12.8 120.1 67.0 52.6 1.8 5.1 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.2 12.9 119.7 67.2 51.9 4.1 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.8 11.7 112.2 66.6 54.8 1.5 3.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.0 6.5 9.0 111.1 64.6 54.7 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.2 14.2 121.3 68.4 54.0 3.5 7.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.8 13.1 116.5 66.5 51.6 1.6 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.7 10.9 13.9 117.8 66.7 52.7 2.0 5.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.9 12.5 119.0 67.0 52.7 0.8 4.8 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.1 8.2 12.5 119.5 67.4 54.2 1.6 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.3 12.2 112.9 63.2 53.9 1.5 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.5 14.2 117.9 67.6 53.7 3.2 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.8 5.8 12.1 117.8 67.1 51.4 0.9 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.7 8.2 12.0 115.8 66.0 53.3 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.6 9.3 117.6 66.7 56.1 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.9 14.3 115.4 66.1 52.3 2.2 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 8.2 10.1 116.3 64.8 55.1 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.9 14.7 19.0 124.6 70.9 54.6 1.8 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.9 11.9 114.2 65.3 51.3 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.5 7.3 10.3 121.8 67.0 56.6 1.9 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.0 8.4 11.3 118.9 66.2 54.5 2.4 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.3 13.0 114.0 66.2 52.1 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.2 9.1 12.5 115.7 64.1 53.2 1.4 4.2 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.2 12.4 117.0 66.4 54.9 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.1 11.4 112.1 62.0 53.7 1.1 4.2 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.3 6.9 11.8 115.5 67.1 52.2 0.2 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 13.6 15.5 116.7 67.5 53.3 2.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.9 9.7 112.3 62.4 54.3 1.3 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------