***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.4 7.6 70.5 49.4 42.0 3.8 5.4 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.2 7.5 8.0 81.5 54.8 42.6 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.0 8.0 74.6 51.7 43.3 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 11.0 9.2 80.1 55.1 46.2 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.8 9.2 9.2 80.4 54.1 45.8 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.9 9.2 94.5 56.6 49.7 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.9 7.6 80.9 56.4 42.6 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.7 10.5 88.4 57.8 48.1 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.3 9.5 79.0 52.2 45.1 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.3 10.4 84.6 55.1 46.7 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.4 9.3 85.3 55.0 46.3 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.7 11.1 9.4 90.0 57.6 48.3 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.0 9.6 91.9 55.1 47.8 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.2 11.7 88.4 56.4 47.4 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.1 8.4 74.8 58.1 45.5 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.4 9.1 88.6 55.5 46.8 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.0 9.6 8.1 86.3 56.4 42.6 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.1 10.7 82.9 54.1 45.6 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.7 9.8 8.4 82.9 56.3 43.6 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.7 13.1 84.4 57.5 47.0 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.7 8.6 74.2 51.8 43.4 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.9 9.2 9.3 93.3 61.3 44.2 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.1 9.2 85.6 59.4 45.5 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.4 10.1 82.2 53.6 46.0 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.8 8.8 73.1 50.4 43.5 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.9 7.3 8.5 82.5 53.5 46.8 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.0 8.1 72.4 49.8 43.0 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.9 8.9 82.8 57.4 47.3 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.5 12.9 11.5 83.7 55.1 46.2 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.9 7.8 78.9 53.7 42.9 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------