***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.1 11.8 92.0 54.5 48.0 4.1 5.6 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.2 10.1 88.1 55.3 48.1 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.1 12.0 95.7 56.5 49.5 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 18.2 16.1 123.3 67.2 57.4 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.8 14.5 110.0 60.4 54.8 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.0 17.1 15.3 126.4 69.2 59.1 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.9 9.7 85.7 54.3 46.6 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.6 19.8 15.6 116.4 66.0 57.9 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.4 13.9 103.0 58.2 52.0 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.9 11.9 15.0 112.9 62.9 56.3 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.7 17.7 14.7 114.8 65.0 56.8 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.6 17.1 14.5 115.4 66.4 57.0 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.2 18.1 15.6 120.0 67.4 57.7 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.6 13.3 15.1 102.8 56.2 52.1 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 24.2 15.7 125.1 69.4 57.0 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.2 15.2 121.2 67.7 58.2 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.4 9.1 80.7 53.6 45.7 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.5 14.6 104.4 60.5 52.7 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.6 10.8 92.4 55.9 49.7 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.9 19.3 113.2 64.7 56.6 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.6 13.1 97.1 55.0 49.4 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.8 10.1 86.3 55.0 48.0 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.1 8.8 11.8 95.5 55.4 50.5 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.6 13.9 99.5 57.9 50.7 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.3 14.7 101.5 57.3 51.9 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.4 16.6 124.9 67.1 57.1 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.8 12.7 93.4 55.0 48.5 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.7 18.7 16.0 131.3 70.5 59.7 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.4 15.9 107.2 61.1 53.9 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.9 10.7 92.4 56.5 48.8 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------