***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 3.2 2.7 2.8 23.2 19.1 17.9 5.5 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.8 3.3 30.9 31.1 25.0 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 3.2 2.2 2.5 20.4 17.9 16.3 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 5.7 5.8 3.4 22.5 17.0 16.6 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 4.1 2.6 2.4 16.4 13.4 12.3 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 2.9 1.3 2.0 13.7 12.2 11.1 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.6 4.2 3.4 32.6 31.9 25.9 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 6.9 6.4 4.1 25.8 18.9 17.2 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 2.9 1.6 2.2 15.7 13.0 12.3 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 3.0 1.6 2.8 17.5 13.3 12.6 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 2.9 1.3 2.5 15.9 13.0 12.0 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 2.4 1.2 3.2 21.1 16.4 15.3 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 3.8 2.1 2.1 12.9 11.3 9.9 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 5.7 4.9 3.1 19.5 15.5 14.2 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.1 2.8 3.8 27.1 28.6 24.8 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 3.9 1.8 2.3 14.8 12.9 11.4 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.1 4.5 4.0 39.5 37.3 29.6 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 3.3 1.9 4.2 25.0 15.8 16.3 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 2.6 2.2 3.0 27.2 26.6 22.0 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 5.5 5.8 8.6 46.0 28.2 25.9 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 3.4 2.2 2.6 18.8 15.8 14.2 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.5 4.1 38.4 35.9 28.0 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 2.7 2.2 2.7 21.7 19.5 17.7 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 2.9 1.9 2.9 19.4 14.7 14.2 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 2.5 1.1 3.0 21.2 16.6 15.4 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 3.4 1.6 3.0 20.9 15.5 15.5 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 2.9 1.6 2.8 22.4 18.9 17.1 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 3.6 2.3 3.1 21.3 19.1 18.2 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 6.5 4.2 6.2 35.6 22.4 21.3 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.9 26.5 26.1 21.8 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------