***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 8.3 5.3 2.0 66.7 63.4 1.4 3.4 8.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.5 7.0 5.5 2.2 68.4 64.2 1.1 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.7 8.7 5.8 2.1 66.1 63.6 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.7 3.6 2.7 2.1 67.2 63.5 -2.0 0.8 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.7 6.8 3.8 2.0 64.5 63.0 1.8 3.6 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.3 5.8 3.3 1.7 62.5 61.8 1.4 3.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.3 6.7 5.4 2.2 68.5 64.3 0.8 2.3 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.1 1.1 3.7 1.8 63.3 62.6 -1.3 0.6 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 8.3 4.7 1.9 64.1 62.7 2.1 4.8 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.7 6.4 4.3 1.9 63.4 62.7 1.3 3.4 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.7 4.0 2.0 64.3 63.2 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.9 3.8 1.8 63.3 62.5 1.7 4.6 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.1 3.3 1.7 62.8 62.3 2.1 4.6 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.9 5.4 2.0 62.5 62.8 1.9 6.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.0 6.3 3.5 2.0 67.5 63.6 1.2 2.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.5 8.1 3.6 1.9 65.9 63.0 2.5 5.3 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.9 6.5 5.5 2.1 69.4 63.7 0.7 2.3 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.1 4.2 4.4 1.8 64.2 62.3 0.8 1.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 7.3 7.9 5.7 2.2 67.2 64.0 0.9 3.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.0 3.6 2.7 1.5 62.7 61.5 -1.4 2.6 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.2 8.0 5.1 1.9 64.3 62.7 2.3 3.9 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.1 5.6 2.1 67.2 63.6 0.8 2.7 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 3.9 6.7 6.0 2.1 65.4 63.4 1.1 2.7 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.9 5.2 2.0 63.4 62.9 2.1 6.7 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.9 6.8 3.8 1.9 66.1 62.9 1.7 2.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.1 6.1 3.1 1.6 61.7 62.7 1.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 7.9 4.8 2.0 66.4 62.9 2.4 3.4 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.7 6.8 3.1 2.0 67.0 63.1 1.2 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.8 3.9 1.7 63.1 61.9 -0.3 3.1 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.7 7.4 5.4 2.2 68.1 64.5 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------