***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.7 6.3 4.7 1.5 64.1 59.8 0.7 4.2 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.1 4.8 1.5 61.3 59.2 1.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.0 5.0 1.4 61.8 58.1 2.2 5.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.2 56.7 57.8 -1.5 1.0 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.3 3.0 1.1 58.0 57.2 2.2 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.7 2.1 0.7 52.9 54.5 2.0 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.6 4.8 1.5 62.7 59.6 0.7 3.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -0.5 2.6 0.7 55.4 54.6 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.4 7.5 3.8 1.0 59.0 56.4 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.7 3.2 0.8 56.3 55.1 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.6 3.0 1.0 57.2 56.7 2.4 4.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.4 2.9 0.9 56.3 56.1 3.6 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.0 2.5 1.0 56.1 57.2 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.0 7.4 4.4 1.0 58.1 55.4 2.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.0 2.6 0.9 55.8 56.8 1.0 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.1 7.0 2.6 1.0 57.3 56.9 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.8 4.8 1.4 60.9 58.3 0.8 3.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.6 3.3 0.8 55.6 54.7 1.2 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.3 4.9 1.4 60.9 58.6 0.7 4.7 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.2 3.5 1.8 0.8 55.6 54.5 -1.5 2.2 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.3 4.4 1.2 60.5 57.3 3.0 5.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.9 4.9 1.3 59.3 58.1 0.9 4.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.8 5.1 1.3 61.0 57.3 0.8 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.5 4.2 1.0 56.8 55.5 3.4 6.9 8.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.3 5.8 3.3 1.3 61.1 59.1 1.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.8 6.2 2.6 1.2 59.1 59.1 2.3 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.4 4.3 1.5 62.1 59.7 1.5 5.4 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.1 7.1 2.2 1.0 56.1 56.4 2.3 5.4 7.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.4 2.4 2.8 0.8 55.2 54.4 0.2 1.6 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.4 6.1 4.8 1.6 62.7 59.5 1.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------