***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 7.5 8.6 7.8 3.7 80.8 79.0 2.6 3.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 6.3 7.1 7.6 3.5 80.9 77.6 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 8.2 9.3 8.0 3.4 78.0 75.1 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.9 3.7 5.0 3.5 79.3 77.1 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 7.4 8.4 6.4 3.5 79.6 77.2 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.9 5.4 3.3 77.7 75.3 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.3 7.1 7.6 3.7 82.6 79.2 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 0.5 0.9 5.6 3.0 73.1 72.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 8.4 9.2 7.1 3.3 77.5 75.5 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 7.5 7.9 6.4 3.1 73.9 72.8 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 8.1 8.9 6.7 3.5 79.2 76.6 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 7.4 7.8 6.0 3.2 76.8 75.2 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 7.4 8.3 6.5 3.6 80.4 76.9 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.3 7.5 3.0 71.0 70.7 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.3 6.0 3.3 81.6 78.3 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 8.0 9.2 6.2 3.6 81.4 77.5 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 6.0 7.0 7.4 3.4 80.5 77.4 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.0 6.3 3.1 72.3 71.7 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 6.9 8.0 7.7 3.4 79.5 76.3 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 3.3 3.9 4.8 2.9 73.2 71.3 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 8.0 9.1 7.7 3.3 77.9 75.3 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 6.4 7.1 7.4 3.2 79.1 76.0 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.6 7.8 3.3 77.2 74.6 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.0 7.4 3.1 72.6 71.7 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 6.1 6.7 6.8 3.6 80.0 78.5 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 6.3 7.1 5.7 3.5 82.8 79.8 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.0 9.0 7.5 3.8 81.7 79.6 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.4 5.5 3.3 78.6 76.1 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.2 3.9 5.8 3.0 72.5 71.8 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 6.3 7.6 7.7 3.7 81.4 78.3 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------