***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 5.8 16.4 12.0 8.5 100.0 99.8 2.6 3.5 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.3 16.3 11.3 7.7 100.0 99.0 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 8.7 20.1 12.4 8.4 100.0 99.7 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 2.8 14.4 9.3 8.2 99.9 98.8 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.1 16.2 10.9 8.4 100.0 99.9 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.1 14.8 10.1 8.7 100.0 99.7 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.2 15.4 11.3 7.9 100.0 99.5 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.0 7.6 9.6 7.7 99.3 99.1 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 8.4 18.1 10.9 7.5 100.0 99.8 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.7 15.0 10.8 8.2 100.0 99.7 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.6 15.5 11.3 8.4 100.0 99.9 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 7.8 17.4 9.8 7.6 99.5 99.3 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.2 15.9 10.9 8.0 99.5 99.4 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 9.3 21.3 12.7 8.8 100.0 99.6 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 6.1 9.3 8.3 5.4 95.7 93.8 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.4 15.8 10.5 8.2 99.8 99.7 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.4 14.4 11.1 7.8 100.0 99.3 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.2 13.0 10.9 8.7 100.0 99.9 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.2 19.3 11.3 7.6 100.0 98.8 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 3.8 14.2 9.3 8.2 100.0 99.7 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.7 17.6 12.1 8.1 100.0 99.9 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.0 17.0 11.4 7.7 100.0 98.8 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.3 16.9 11.3 7.4 100.0 98.6 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 9.4 15.9 12.1 8.3 100.0 99.6 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.0 13.4 11.7 8.8 100.0 99.9 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.4 8.6 6.9 99.4 99.3 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.3 18.1 12.0 8.7 100.0 99.9 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 7.1 14.9 9.0 7.0 97.4 95.6 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.4 14.5 10.0 8.3 100.0 99.9 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.8 16.2 11.5 7.9 100.0 99.4 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------