***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.6 7.6 5.3 7.0 100.0 99.2 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 7.2 4.3 6.3 99.7 97.3 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.8 10.3 4.9 6.5 99.9 98.4 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.8 7.2 2.5 6.5 100.0 99.4 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 1.3 3.0 3.8 6.8 98.7 98.2 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.1 0.3 5.5 96.7 96.1 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.7 6.5 4.8 6.8 99.8 98.0 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -3.8 1.4 1.6 6.5 99.2 98.2 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.9 3.7 1.9 4.9 96.0 94.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.1 3.4 1.5 5.9 97.8 96.5 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 1.4 3.1 2.3 5.7 97.9 96.4 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 0.3 4.4 2.4 6.5 98.9 97.9 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.4 0.9 5.0 94.5 93.7 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.3 6.0 2.8 6.2 98.7 96.9 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.5 1.8 4.0 92.6 92.1 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 1.2 4.1 1.5 5.4 97.3 96.3 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.3 5.1 4.7 6.9 99.9 98.2 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.7 1.8 6.6 99.6 97.9 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.9 5.5 3.9 5.9 99.2 96.7 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -2.6 4.1 1.6 7.4 99.0 98.3 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 2.0 5.2 4.1 6.1 98.9 97.6 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.1 6.2 5.0 6.9 100.0 98.2 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.3 3.7 3.4 5.4 98.0 96.2 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.8 3.7 2.6 5.8 99.1 96.8 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 1.0 3.9 4.6 6.8 100.0 99.4 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.8 2.0 6.3 98.2 97.9 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.2 10.2 5.1 7.1 99.9 98.9 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -0.7 1.9 1.9 5.4 95.2 95.0 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -0.7 6.8 1.1 6.8 99.8 98.0 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.2 7.5 4.8 6.6 99.8 98.2 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------