***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 82.7 54.6 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.2 5.9 6.8 86.3 59.5 43.1 1.0 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.5 8.4 7.3 91.6 60.3 47.4 2.5 5.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.0 7.7 8.0 99.1 62.6 49.5 1.8 5.1 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.5 8.1 95.3 60.4 48.1 4.1 6.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.4 7.9 94.9 54.9 47.7 1.5 3.9 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 5.4 6.6 83.6 59.4 42.7 1.3 4.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.7 9.2 98.2 62.4 49.6 3.5 7.9 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.8 7.2 8.4 92.9 58.9 47.5 1.6 3.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.0 9.2 95.9 60.5 48.6 2.0 5.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.0 7.7 7.7 94.0 61.9 48.1 0.8 4.8 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.5 6.8 8.0 97.3 62.2 49.6 1.6 3.5 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.1 8.0 96.2 55.9 48.2 1.5 4.9 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.3 9.0 92.8 59.9 46.9 3.2 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 6.3 7.9 101.7 67.9 50.7 0.9 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.7 7.6 7.6 95.9 59.9 48.1 1.0 3.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.9 6.2 6.4 82.8 60.2 41.4 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.2 10.3 99.3 60.8 49.7 2.2 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.5 5.7 6.9 88.3 59.8 44.2 1.7 3.6 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.5 12.6 12.5 104.1 61.1 49.9 1.8 5.3 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.4 7.5 89.5 59.3 47.4 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.8 5.0 6.8 84.0 59.2 42.5 1.9 4.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.0 7.3 7.3 89.4 60.2 45.7 2.4 4.2 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.5 8.9 95.8 60.9 48.6 3.0 6.7 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.8 7.4 84.7 55.7 44.9 1.4 4.2 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.8 8.5 101.6 60.3 49.0 1.8 4.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.6 6.9 80.2 53.1 43.1 1.1 4.2 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.9 5.2 8.0 103.0 65.5 50.3 0.2 2.2 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.7 11.1 100.2 60.5 49.8 2.7 4.9 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.3 5.0 6.9 87.1 59.9 44.4 1.3 3.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------