***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.2 55.5 39.8 32.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.5 5.7 53.8 39.7 32.1 3.0 6.6 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 6.5 6.5 61.0 41.9 35.1 5.6 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.8 6.8 62.2 40.1 35.5 5.8 10.3 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.5 8.1 7.5 67.2 40.9 36.8 7.4 9.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.6 5.6 7.7 65.4 40.8 37.5 4.0 6.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.6 5.7 52.8 39.5 31.8 2.9 8.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.5 11.1 8.4 69.3 41.7 38.6 8.2 14.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.1 7.0 8.2 70.7 41.3 38.2 5.4 8.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 7.0 8.8 71.9 41.3 39.0 5.8 9.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.0 6.9 7.4 69.6 41.4 37.9 5.5 9.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.2 6.7 7.3 69.7 41.0 38.6 5.0 7.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.1 7.3 7.5 66.4 39.9 37.5 6.4 9.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.2 8.5 8.7 68.1 39.5 37.0 6.6 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.6 6.5 62.1 45.8 36.8 1.3 7.1 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.4 6.9 7.1 67.3 41.2 37.2 5.9 8.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.4 5.6 53.6 38.3 32.5 3.6 5.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.5 9.7 71.6 42.4 39.1 2.8 8.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.3 6.0 56.5 39.4 33.0 3.9 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.8 10.2 64.2 41.8 37.8 4.3 7.0 18.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.0 5.7 7.2 64.3 40.7 35.7 4.8 7.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.5 4.3 6.2 57.6 40.0 34.0 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 5.0 6.7 61.4 39.2 34.6 2.3 8.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.7 9.0 8.6 70.0 41.8 37.8 5.7 10.7 16.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.3 6.5 6.8 55.3 37.0 32.2 5.6 10.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.4 5.3 7.2 66.2 41.7 37.6 4.7 6.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.3 6.6 54.1 37.6 31.6 4.0 7.1 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.9 3.4 6.8 65.7 43.9 37.3 2.6 8.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.5 9.8 10.2 69.9 42.2 38.8 8.5 12.6 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.3 5.9 55.2 40.9 33.0 4.1 6.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------