***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 73.9 46.0 39.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.1 9.4 82.4 48.2 43.5 4.7 6.1 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 6.2 10.3 9.1 73.7 45.1 40.5 9.2 10.5 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 5.7 6.7 10.1 75.3 44.7 40.9 4.1 10.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 5.5 8.8 9.4 67.8 38.1 38.2 8.6 11.7 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 4.2 5.2 8.8 65.0 39.8 37.1 3.6 10.2 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.0 6.7 9.3 81.3 47.9 43.0 4.5 8.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 9.2 12.3 9.1 62.5 36.0 35.6 11.8 15.2 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.8 4.6 9.3 65.2 38.2 36.8 3.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.1 5.2 9.3 63.0 36.0 35.8 5.0 7.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.4 7.2 8.7 66.0 39.0 36.9 6.9 8.1 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 4.2 7.6 8.1 61.5 36.9 34.8 7.1 9.0 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.2 4.7 8.5 63.0 37.8 35.5 4.7 7.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 6.1 9.6 9.7 66.1 40.3 37.5 7.9 12.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.8 10.4 79.3 50.4 41.6 1.9 5.6 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.6 8.6 65.7 38.7 36.7 6.4 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.3 9.8 91.3 52.1 46.3 6.0 7.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.3 6.3 9.8 61.5 34.8 34.9 6.1 8.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 6.6 9.3 79.7 47.2 42.7 4.5 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.6 5.9 12.1 65.6 38.5 36.6 5.4 12.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 5.3 8.8 9.3 69.5 39.5 38.4 7.4 10.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.4 9.1 10.1 90.5 49.9 45.8 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.7 7.2 9.1 73.6 45.1 40.7 4.2 8.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.8 8.5 9.2 64.0 37.7 36.6 8.3 9.4 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.9 9.1 10.1 70.7 40.8 38.1 6.9 10.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.3 4.9 8.2 63.4 37.3 35.4 3.7 8.0 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.4 6.2 9.8 72.2 44.8 38.6 3.8 7.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.6 10.0 76.1 46.7 41.2 3.4 5.3 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.9 11.7 10.7 62.6 35.9 35.5 10.4 15.5 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.2 9.3 79.2 48.2 42.1 5.2 6.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------