***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 33.1 30.7 20.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.4 4.1 5.0 43.2 38.1 26.1 3.8 6.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 4.1 3.2 4.5 32.8 26.1 19.7 4.7 11.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 6.2 6.3 4.0 26.0 19.4 16.5 8.4 11.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 4.7 4.2 4.1 25.6 18.2 15.8 9.1 13.0 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 3.8 2.1 3.1 19.9 17.7 14.8 5.5 13.1 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 3.2 4.4 4.8 43.3 36.1 25.9 4.2 7.3 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 7.6 6.5 4.9 30.1 20.5 18.4 12.1 17.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 3.4 3.1 4.4 27.9 17.6 15.7 6.3 8.8 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 4.0 2.0 4.7 28.5 17.0 16.7 6.8 13.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 3.5 3.4 4.1 26.2 18.9 16.8 7.5 11.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.2 4.1 27.5 21.3 18.0 4.9 11.2 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 4.8 3.9 3.6 22.5 18.7 16.1 7.9 13.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 7.3 5.6 5.8 35.6 27.8 21.7 6.9 13.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 2.4 3.1 3.4 23.4 30.3 18.9 3.9 9.2 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 4.3 3.3 3.6 23.3 18.1 15.9 6.6 14.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 3.6 7.5 5.8 55.7 46.1 32.0 4.2 8.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 3.4 2.1 5.2 30.0 17.8 17.4 4.2 9.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.8 4.4 5.0 40.8 35.9 24.9 3.8 6.9 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 4.7 4.7 6.9 35.6 23.6 20.5 6.8 13.5 18.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 4.1 4.1 4.4 29.1 21.2 16.6 7.5 12.0 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.3 6.5 56.7 44.9 32.4 3.4 5.5 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 3.5 3.2 5.1 37.2 32.2 22.6 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 4.0 3.5 5.0 30.8 20.1 18.3 6.5 10.7 16.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 3.0 2.8 4.3 27.6 22.6 17.7 4.7 10.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 4.2 2.1 3.6 22.9 19.4 16.0 5.0 13.4 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 3.8 2.6 4.3 30.6 27.0 18.9 3.8 11.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 4.0 2.8 3.6 24.1 23.3 17.7 4.3 11.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 6.5 3.7 5.8 31.9 19.0 18.2 9.4 20.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 3.1 4.5 4.7 38.6 33.9 23.4 4.5 6.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------