***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 0.0 5.2 2.8 89.6 84.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 6.2 6.9 5.0 2.8 86.5 83.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 7.4 8.5 5.3 2.7 87.8 83.8 3.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 2.5 3.3 3.1 2.6 85.0 81.1 -0.7 1.1 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 7.0 8.3 3.8 2.6 86.6 81.6 3.2 4.5 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 6.6 7.7 3.7 2.9 89.2 84.1 3.1 4.1 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 5.8 6.6 4.8 2.8 86.3 83.5 2.0 3.4 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 0.9 1.4 3.8 2.7 89.9 83.8 -1.4 -0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 7.9 9.1 4.7 2.7 89.1 82.6 3.9 5.2 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 7.1 8.0 4.4 2.8 89.7 83.6 3.1 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 7.4 8.3 3.8 2.6 87.6 82.1 3.4 4.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 7.2 8.7 3.8 2.6 88.0 82.9 4.1 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 6.9 8.4 3.8 2.7 88.7 83.7 3.2 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 8.0 8.9 5.4 3.0 89.2 85.2 4.4 5.6 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 5.9 6.7 3.5 2.5 83.8 79.8 1.9 3.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 7.7 8.9 3.7 2.6 87.3 82.7 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 5.7 6.5 4.8 2.8 86.3 82.7 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 4.1 6.6 4.5 2.9 90.9 85.0 2.1 2.8 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 6.7 7.4 5.1 2.8 87.0 83.5 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 4.1 5.4 3.2 2.9 92.5 84.9 -0.3 2.5 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 7.4 8.9 5.0 2.7 88.8 83.0 3.9 4.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 6.3 7.1 5.0 2.7 86.8 81.8 2.7 3.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 6.5 7.1 5.3 2.7 87.9 83.5 2.9 4.0 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 8.4 9.4 5.2 2.8 89.6 84.8 4.0 5.5 7.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 5.9 7.4 4.0 2.7 91.6 84.2 2.5 3.4 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 6.1 6.9 3.4 2.5 88.1 83.0 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 7.3 9.0 4.6 2.7 91.0 84.6 3.4 4.8 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 7.2 7.8 3.5 2.6 84.5 80.5 3.0 4.4 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 4.1 5.7 4.0 3.0 92.2 85.8 0.7 2.7 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 6.2 6.9 5.1 2.8 86.7 84.0 2.2 3.6 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------