***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 1.8 70.7 66.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.2 6.9 4.1 2.0 66.3 66.8 1.1 3.1 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.6 8.8 4.4 1.7 66.9 65.5 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 1.6 3.7 2.3 1.7 68.3 66.2 -2.0 0.8 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.7 7.7 2.8 1.5 67.9 64.4 1.8 3.6 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.7 6.2 2.2 1.5 67.2 63.6 1.4 3.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 5.2 6.7 4.0 1.9 67.4 66.6 0.8 2.3 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.4 2.3 1.2 65.2 62.0 -1.3 0.6 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.9 9.1 3.5 1.5 66.7 63.5 2.1 4.8 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.6 6.6 2.9 1.3 65.3 62.5 1.3 3.4 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.9 2.6 1.4 67.5 63.4 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.2 8.1 2.4 1.3 66.0 62.3 1.7 4.6 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.7 7.3 2.3 1.4 66.6 62.7 2.1 4.6 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 7.1 9.1 3.9 1.6 64.6 63.7 1.9 6.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 6.1 7.5 2.7 1.8 71.7 67.7 1.2 2.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 8.6 8.1 2.3 1.4 67.0 63.4 2.5 5.3 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.3 6.1 4.0 1.9 63.9 66.1 0.7 2.3 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.5 4.0 2.9 1.3 62.5 62.2 0.8 1.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.9 7.9 4.3 1.9 65.7 66.4 0.9 3.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.0 3.6 1.5 1.3 62.2 61.8 -1.4 2.6 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.1 8.3 4.0 1.6 66.7 64.6 2.3 3.9 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.8 5.7 4.0 1.8 62.8 65.5 0.8 2.7 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 3.6 6.7 4.4 1.8 65.3 65.6 1.1 2.7 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.0 3.8 1.5 64.4 63.5 2.1 6.7 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.8 7.6 2.9 1.7 69.8 66.5 1.7 2.8 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.2 2.0 1.2 65.1 61.4 1.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 6.9 8.6 3.6 1.7 70.8 66.3 2.4 3.4 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.3 8.6 2.5 1.7 69.6 66.2 1.2 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.0 5.6 2.4 1.4 62.0 62.2 -0.3 3.1 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 5.8 7.4 4.2 1.9 67.7 66.7 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------