***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 4.7 2.6 76.6 73.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 6.1 6.8 4.6 2.7 77.0 74.1 1.1 3.9 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.7 4.9 2.6 76.8 73.0 2.2 5.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 3.7 6.2 2.9 2.7 82.0 75.0 -1.5 1.0 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 7.6 9.0 3.4 2.5 78.9 72.8 2.2 4.8 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 7.4 8.2 3.0 2.4 74.4 70.2 2.0 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 5.7 6.5 4.5 2.7 77.9 73.8 0.7 3.9 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 0.6 1.3 3.3 2.4 77.3 71.4 -2.3 -1.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 8.1 9.3 4.3 2.5 77.6 71.7 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 7.4 8.2 3.8 2.4 75.6 70.8 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 7.8 9.3 3.4 2.4 78.4 72.5 2.4 4.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 8.3 9.7 3.3 2.3 77.1 72.2 3.6 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 7.3 8.5 3.0 2.3 73.9 71.2 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 8.3 9.6 4.7 2.5 76.7 70.4 2.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.6 3.3 2.8 82.9 76.5 1.0 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 8.4 9.9 3.1 2.4 77.2 72.1 2.8 4.9 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.4 6.2 4.5 2.6 77.3 73.0 0.8 3.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.8 3.8 2.3 74.1 69.0 1.2 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.8 7.5 4.8 2.7 76.7 73.7 0.7 4.7 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 4.9 5.8 2.5 2.3 76.5 69.1 -1.5 2.2 4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 7.7 8.8 4.6 2.5 75.8 72.3 3.0 5.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.5 4.6 2.6 78.4 72.3 0.9 4.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.5 4.9 2.6 76.3 72.9 0.8 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 9.1 9.9 4.6 2.4 74.9 70.4 3.4 6.9 8.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.9 7.1 3.4 2.6 79.3 74.7 1.5 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.5 7.6 2.9 2.2 74.8 70.8 2.3 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.7 8.7 4.1 2.6 78.6 73.9 1.5 5.4 8.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 7.7 9.3 3.2 2.7 81.5 74.9 2.3 5.4 7.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.7 6.0 3.3 2.3 74.6 68.7 0.2 1.6 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.9 4.7 2.7 77.3 74.1 1.1 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------