***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 0.0 7.1 4.7 89.1 86.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 6.6 8.6 6.8 4.6 90.6 85.6 2.0 3.5 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 8.6 10.6 7.2 4.7 90.4 85.8 3.3 4.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 3.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 84.3 81.0 -0.3 0.2 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 7.7 8.8 5.2 4.1 86.1 82.8 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 6.4 8.8 5.2 4.4 86.5 84.0 1.3 4.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 6.4 8.5 6.7 4.6 90.5 85.5 1.7 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 0.9 1.8 5.3 4.3 87.7 84.5 -2.0 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 8.8 10.7 6.5 4.5 87.9 84.5 3.0 5.7 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 8.1 9.8 6.1 4.5 88.4 84.7 1.7 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 8.4 9.6 5.3 4.1 87.7 83.8 2.7 5.5 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 7.7 9.2 5.3 4.1 88.2 84.2 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 7.8 9.4 5.1 4.2 88.5 84.7 2.6 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 9.3 10.9 7.3 5.0 90.8 86.1 3.9 5.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 5.5 6.5 4.5 3.5 83.8 79.7 1.8 3.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 8.3 10.5 5.0 4.1 87.6 83.7 3.7 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 6.2 8.0 6.7 4.5 90.5 84.3 1.9 2.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 5.2 7.4 6.3 4.8 89.8 85.3 0.9 3.2 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 7.4 9.8 7.0 4.6 90.8 85.4 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 3.7 4.9 4.7 4.5 87.8 84.8 -0.2 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 8.5 9.9 6.8 4.5 87.8 85.0 3.2 4.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 6.6 8.5 6.8 4.5 89.8 83.5 2.3 3.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 7.1 9.0 7.2 4.7 90.8 85.4 2.1 4.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 9.5 11.0 7.1 4.8 90.1 85.8 3.9 5.3 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 6.2 7.3 5.4 4.2 86.6 84.2 2.2 4.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 6.5 7.3 4.7 3.9 87.0 84.4 2.8 4.4 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.0 10.2 6.3 4.4 88.2 85.2 3.5 5.5 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 6.1 8.4 4.7 3.8 84.7 80.8 2.1 4.1 5.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 3.8 7.0 5.7 4.8 89.9 85.7 -0.4 1.2 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 6.6 8.5 6.9 4.7 90.7 85.9 2.2 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------