***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 0.0 4.7 2.0 73.2 71.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.6 4.4 1.9 70.4 70.6 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.1 6.8 4.8 1.9 71.3 70.6 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.0 2.1 2.9 2.1 70.4 70.1 -0.4 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 7.1 6.5 3.7 2.1 70.7 71.3 2.9 4.6 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 6.8 8.4 4.4 3.3 83.7 81.3 2.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.0 4.1 1.8 70.7 70.2 1.7 2.8 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 0.9 1.2 4.4 3.1 81.4 80.1 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 7.6 8.1 4.6 2.2 72.2 72.7 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 7.3 7.8 4.8 2.8 79.0 77.8 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 7.6 7.0 4.1 2.4 71.8 72.8 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 7.4 7.7 4.3 2.8 77.7 76.9 3.4 5.3 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 7.7 8.3 4.8 3.0 79.6 79.7 3.1 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 8.5 9.2 5.6 2.8 76.7 76.4 3.4 5.0 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 4.9 5.2 3.6 1.6 64.3 64.9 2.3 3.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.3 4.2 2.7 76.8 76.0 3.7 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.3 4.2 2.0 72.6 71.8 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 4.1 4.9 4.8 3.1 81.0 80.5 0.9 2.1 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.3 4.5 1.9 69.7 70.4 2.3 3.2 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 3.7 4.7 4.0 3.4 85.6 84.2 0.3 1.6 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 7.7 6.9 4.8 2.0 70.1 71.4 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.6 4.4 1.9 70.3 70.6 1.9 2.7 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.5 4.6 1.9 68.9 70.4 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 8.7 8.8 5.2 2.6 76.8 76.0 3.8 5.2 6.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 6.1 6.3 4.2 2.4 73.5 73.8 2.5 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 7.4 8.5 4.1 2.8 81.5 79.3 3.0 4.7 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.3 4.5 2.2 74.0 72.9 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.3 3.5 2.0 69.2 68.8 2.1 4.0 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 4.3 5.9 4.5 3.4 84.8 83.7 0.6 2.0 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.4 4.4 1.8 70.2 70.1 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------