***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.3 1.5 62.8 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -1.1 -1.7 1.4 61.5 61.8 -4.4 -2.6 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 0.2 1.7 -1.7 1.3 61.6 62.1 -2.6 -0.7 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -2.6 -2.4 -4.0 2.0 64.6 67.9 -8.2 -6.1 -2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.8 1.6 60.9 64.0 -5.2 -2.2 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 -1.9 -2.1 -5.2 1.6 60.0 65.1 -5.9 -3.5 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 61.0 61.6 -4.1 -2.1 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -4.5 -6.0 -4.8 1.5 55.7 62.2 -9.1 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -0.5 -3.0 1.4 60.0 61.4 -4.8 -1.3 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -2.3 -4.2 1.4 56.7 61.2 -4.3 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -2.8 -4.0 1.5 56.4 63.3 -4.4 -2.9 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 -1.8 -3.1 -4.4 1.5 55.2 63.0 -6.1 -3.4 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -2.9 -4.7 1.5 57.9 63.1 -4.9 -3.4 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.6 -3.2 1.3 57.1 61.1 -3.2 -0.9 0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 -0.7 0.2 -3.3 2.2 68.1 69.1 -4.1 -3.0 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -1.3 -4.5 1.6 58.6 64.2 -3.8 -2.4 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -2.0 -1.6 -1.6 1.4 57.8 61.3 -4.6 -2.5 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -4.0 -3.9 -4.8 1.4 58.2 60.5 -5.8 -4.8 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -1.0 -1.8 1.4 62.5 61.9 -4.0 -2.3 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -6.8 -5.7 -6.0 1.3 58.8 59.9 -11.3 -7.7 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.2 1.4 61.0 61.9 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 1.3 58.2 60.9 -5.0 -2.3 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -0.6 -2.1 1.3 62.8 61.7 -3.7 -2.0 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -1.8 -3.3 1.4 57.6 61.1 -4.2 -1.9 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.5 -3.1 1.8 62.8 66.0 -3.7 -2.1 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -2.9 -4.5 1.3 53.6 61.4 -4.8 -3.1 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -1.4 -0.4 -2.1 1.6 62.2 63.6 -4.9 -2.2 0.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 -1.6 -1.4 -3.8 2.0 65.1 68.1 -5.4 -3.6 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -3.4 -2.4 -5.3 1.3 56.9 60.3 -7.8 -4.2 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -0.3 -1.6 1.4 62.1 62.0 -3.8 -2.4 1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------