***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.8 2.4 75.7 70.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 2.4 72.3 70.9 -3.8 -1.6 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 1.4 1.6 -1.1 2.3 73.3 71.2 -2.3 0.2 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 -3.3 -3.0 -3.4 2.9 75.5 76.1 -7.7 -5.0 -3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 -0.5 -0.6 -3.0 2.6 73.1 74.3 -3.7 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 -1.3 -1.4 -4.3 2.5 68.8 72.4 -5.5 -3.0 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 2.3 72.4 70.2 -4.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -5.3 -4.8 -3.7 2.6 70.2 72.0 -9.1 -7.2 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 0.1 0.3 -2.1 2.5 68.7 72.5 -4.0 -0.9 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 -0.8 -1.0 -3.1 2.5 68.5 71.9 -4.1 -2.2 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 -0.6 -0.9 -3.2 2.5 69.8 73.7 -4.9 -2.3 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -1.0 -1.0 -3.4 2.7 70.3 72.6 -5.8 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 -0.6 -0.9 -3.8 2.5 69.4 71.5 -4.0 -2.1 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 0.0 0.3 -2.1 2.7 73.8 72.9 -3.5 -1.0 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 -0.3 0.0 -2.8 2.9 75.0 75.4 -3.6 -1.9 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 0.0 -0.2 -3.7 2.5 70.7 73.5 -3.6 -1.7 -0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 2.2 70.7 69.7 -4.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 -2.4 -2.6 -3.5 2.6 70.3 71.6 -7.0 -3.8 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 -0.3 -0.4 -1.1 2.3 72.4 71.1 -4.2 -1.1 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -4.2 -3.9 -4.7 2.3 68.2 69.0 -9.7 -6.1 -4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 -0.1 0.1 -1.4 2.4 69.5 71.6 -4.5 -1.5 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 2.2 71.2 69.4 -4.0 -1.7 -1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.4 2.4 74.2 71.6 -4.4 -1.5 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 -0.9 -1.0 -2.3 2.5 71.7 72.4 -3.8 -1.6 -1.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 -0.4 -0.3 -2.5 2.7 75.7 75.1 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 -1.1 -1.0 -3.4 2.5 73.3 71.3 -5.0 -2.4 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 0.5 0.5 -1.6 2.5 74.7 72.2 -2.6 -0.8 0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -1.3 -1.2 -3.2 2.9 74.3 75.7 -4.8 -3.1 -1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -2.8 -2.7 -4.0 2.5 70.2 70.9 -6.6 -4.3 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.3 -1.0 2.4 74.0 71.0 -4.3 -1.1 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------