***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 1.3 3.7 89.0 81.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 0.4 1.2 1.1 3.7 89.5 81.3 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 2.0 3.6 0.8 3.5 89.2 80.8 -2.5 0.2 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 -3.4 -2.7 -2.1 3.3 80.6 78.2 -7.1 -5.8 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 -0.2 1.3 -1.5 3.4 82.6 78.5 -4.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 -1.2 -0.6 -2.5 3.9 79.4 79.5 -5.3 -2.7 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 0.6 2.2 1.2 3.7 89.5 80.8 -4.0 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 -5.6 -4.8 -1.7 4.1 82.3 79.3 -9.1 -6.8 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 1.1 2.5 -0.3 3.7 85.8 80.2 -4.3 -0.8 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 0.3 1.4 -1.1 4.0 84.2 79.7 -4.1 -2.4 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 0.3 1.0 -1.6 3.5 79.9 77.7 -4.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 -1.0 -0.2 -1.7 3.7 80.3 77.9 -5.6 -2.7 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 -0.7 -0.2 -2.2 3.6 78.7 77.7 -4.4 -2.3 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 0.8 1.4 -0.2 4.0 88.7 82.9 -2.5 -0.8 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 -0.6 0.5 -1.5 3.4 83.8 80.0 -5.2 -2.8 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 0.2 1.1 -2.2 3.5 81.1 78.0 -3.7 -0.7 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 -0.1 1.2 1.4 3.8 90.5 81.3 -3.7 -2.2 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 -2.0 -0.6 -1.4 4.3 84.1 80.5 -5.7 -3.7 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 0.3 1.7 0.8 3.5 88.4 80.8 -2.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -3.6 -2.3 -2.2 4.5 82.2 79.9 -9.8 -7.2 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 0.8 1.6 0.5 3.7 87.4 80.8 -4.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 -0.4 0.7 1.2 3.7 89.3 80.6 -3.6 -2.1 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 -0.2 0.5 0.3 3.4 86.8 80.7 -2.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 0.5 0.9 -0.4 3.9 87.5 81.4 -4.1 -1.2 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 -0.1 0.6 -0.8 3.6 85.0 81.5 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 -0.7 -0.2 -2.0 3.5 76.3 76.7 -4.6 -3.2 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 1.8 2.8 0.3 3.6 86.7 80.9 -4.1 -1.1 1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.8 3.5 83.8 79.6 -5.8 -2.9 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 -1.8 -1.2 -1.7 4.4 83.7 80.6 -6.7 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 0.8 2.2 1.1 3.7 89.1 80.9 -3.8 -1.7 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------