***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.5 0.9 60.7 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 1.2 61.5 60.7 -3.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 -0.4 0.0 -1.7 0.9 59.5 57.7 -1.7 -0.7 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 -5.2 -5.0 -3.7 0.8 53.0 54.4 -6.7 -5.3 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 -2.0 -2.0 -3.1 0.7 53.5 52.6 -3.7 -2.1 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 99 1 100 -3.4 -1.7 -4.1 1.3 56.2 56.4 -4.9 -3.4 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 -2.1 -1.5 -1.5 1.2 62.2 61.1 -3.6 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 -7.7 -6.1 -3.6 1.8 60.1 61.2 -9.0 -8.0 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 96 4 100 -1.7 -0.6 -2.5 0.8 55.4 54.0 -3.1 -1.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 96 4 100 -2.1 -1.3 -3.4 1.3 56.7 57.6 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 98 2 100 -1.7 -1.6 -3.2 0.9 52.7 52.9 -3.4 -1.8 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 97 3 100 -2.0 -1.8 -3.3 1.2 55.3 55.6 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 95 5 100 -2.0 -2.1 -3.9 0.4 47.6 48.4 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 -1.1 -0.4 -2.0 1.9 66.0 65.0 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 99 1 100 -1.6 -1.4 -2.7 0.7 52.7 53.0 -3.4 -1.6 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 99 1 100 -1.2 -1.2 -3.7 0.6 50.7 50.6 -3.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 -1.9 -1.0 -1.2 1.6 65.3 65.5 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 -3.8 -3.2 -4.3 1.1 55.5 56.5 -6.0 -4.2 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 -1.7 -1.1 -1.7 1.0 59.0 58.1 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -6.6 -7.0 -6.0 0.7 52.0 53.5 -8.7 -7.4 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 -1.9 -1.3 -1.8 0.8 56.8 56.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 -2.2 -1.3 -1.3 1.4 62.3 63.0 -3.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 0.8 54.5 54.4 -3.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 -1.9 -1.2 -2.4 1.6 61.3 61.6 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 -1.9 -1.4 -2.4 0.9 55.3 56.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 96 4 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.4 0.9 51.9 53.8 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 -1.9 -1.2 -2.0 0.9 56.7 57.0 -3.5 -2.1 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 98 2 100 -2.6 -2.3 -3.1 0.8 53.4 54.1 -4.4 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 -4.7 -4.8 -4.4 1.7 59.5 60.4 -5.9 -5.3 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 -1.7 -1.3 -1.5 1.0 60.7 58.9 -3.1 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------