***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 37.0 33.6 43.9 97.5 53.0 49.5 23.3 30.2 54.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 24.3 34.0 41.3 99.1 52.8 52.5 23.7 32.0 48.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 50.4 45.7 43.6 94.7 50.3 48.5 38.9 45.6 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 48.3 40.9 45.4 92.4 45.2 45.8 34.2 44.2 54.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 53.3 49.5 48.0 97.3 48.3 47.9 42.4 50.4 61.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 40.1 34.5 45.2 93.2 46.7 47.3 31.6 35.4 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 25.1 40.8 42.0 102.6 57.1 53.8 28.1 35.8 46.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 64.7 60.6 52.8 101.9 53.1 51.8 49.7 60.0 67.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 41.0 38.5 50.5 100.0 52.8 50.1 26.6 37.7 48.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 50.9 49.9 54.0 102.8 54.6 52.2 36.2 48.0 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 46.8 44.6 46.9 100.1 50.4 50.2 37.6 44.4 49.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 44.7 39.6 46.6 99.6 49.4 50.5 31.3 39.9 49.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 48.5 46.5 47.2 98.7 53.3 50.4 38.2 44.2 59.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 59.4 52.9 53.3 97.7 49.6 49.5 44.0 53.0 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 29.9 44.0 41.6 86.7 43.2 43.6 34.2 45.0 53.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 44.8 39.0 44.7 96.7 47.5 48.5 32.1 40.6 54.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 24.3 43.3 41.6 105.2 61.4 54.6 24.4 32.6 44.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 45.2 43.9 58.9 102.6 52.5 52.2 32.4 42.5 47.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.0 34.6 41.6 96.5 48.8 50.9 24.2 36.3 51.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.0 53.2 67.0 101.8 52.5 51.7 39.5 52.3 64.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.7 43.1 47.1 97.0 52.8 48.2 32.3 42.1 50.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 26.2 39.8 42.9 102.3 57.7 53.0 26.5 33.6 48.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 27.1 32.0 43.7 94.9 46.5 49.0 25.6 34.8 44.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 53.0 49.0 52.6 98.9 49.3 50.1 39.6 50.0 57.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 52.1 49.8 49.7 97.6 52.9 49.6 26.9 46.1 58.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 39.0 33.6 46.8 97.6 50.4 49.8 28.3 33.5 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 39.9 53.8 48.2 100.2 54.8 51.8 25.2 32.6 61.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 29.1 31.3 42.5 90.0 43.1 44.9 27.8 37.4 44.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 73.3 70.8 62.2 101.7 51.5 51.2 53.0 68.6 81.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 26.2 37.4 41.5 96.9 50.5 51.1 23.8 37.2 48.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------