***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.7 8.8 97.7 59.5 50.3 1.2 3.7 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.6 8.1 100.7 63.4 51.2 2.0 4.7 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.5 8.7 92.6 58.2 49.5 3.6 7.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.7 9.1 96.0 57.7 48.8 1.9 7.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.2 9.4 96.9 54.7 48.8 2.9 5.9 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.8 5.2 9.3 92.5 55.7 49.9 1.0 3.6 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.2 8.0 8.1 103.2 65.7 51.6 1.5 4.0 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.3 9.7 96.5 57.7 48.7 2.6 9.3 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 10.0 98.0 56.1 49.4 1.1 5.3 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.5 10.2 97.4 56.1 48.8 0.8 4.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.2 8.9 98.5 57.0 49.3 0.6 4.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.2 6.3 8.6 96.2 58.9 48.9 1.3 2.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.9 9.0 94.9 58.1 49.5 1.3 4.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.6 10.8 92.3 56.5 49.2 3.4 8.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.4 9.0 95.3 59.0 49.0 1.1 3.6 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.6 5.7 8.6 96.4 57.8 49.8 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.5 10.3 8.2 112.0 66.9 52.9 2.2 4.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.7 11.3 94.8 54.3 47.9 1.5 4.3 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.3 8.1 96.1 61.8 50.6 2.7 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.1 12.3 93.8 53.8 47.4 1.5 6.6 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.8 9.6 98.0 57.3 50.0 2.2 6.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.6 8.7 110.2 65.6 53.8 2.2 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.9 8.6 91.2 60.0 49.7 2.5 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.5 10.5 93.2 55.0 48.7 4.2 7.6 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.5 10.2 101.5 58.8 50.1 1.8 6.3 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.8 8.9 92.9 57.8 49.3 1.1 3.9 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.9 9.7 101.5 61.1 50.8 1.7 3.7 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.4 8.8 94.6 58.1 49.2 0.2 1.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.1 11.9 93.4 54.2 47.6 2.5 5.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.9 8.1 96.7 61.8 50.6 2.3 4.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------