***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.1 10.3 88.2 48.5 44.5 2.5 7.5 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 4.2 9.9 91.5 52.6 46.4 2.4 3.8 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.9 8.6 10.0 86.5 48.1 44.6 4.7 9.6 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.2 11.3 87.1 49.7 45.9 7.7 11.2 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.7 9.6 11.3 88.2 49.3 45.4 7.6 9.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.0 11.7 85.2 48.9 45.3 4.2 7.3 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.1 10.1 95.3 53.1 47.9 1.8 4.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 12.8 13.5 100.2 52.6 49.7 8.1 11.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.0 11.6 90.1 51.1 46.5 5.0 8.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.8 13.0 95.9 51.5 48.3 7.0 9.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.2 11.3 92.5 50.5 46.8 7.2 10.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.2 12.0 97.1 52.2 48.6 5.2 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.7 12.1 92.5 49.0 47.6 6.3 12.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.0 11.7 12.3 92.1 53.1 47.1 9.1 11.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.2 11.7 89.9 55.1 47.0 0.9 8.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.0 11.2 90.1 48.9 46.5 6.1 8.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.1 5.3 10.1 96.1 54.7 48.1 2.5 4.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 8.9 14.3 98.3 52.5 48.8 6.3 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.8 9.9 89.5 51.9 45.8 3.9 6.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.6 18.0 107.5 58.8 52.0 5.0 7.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 7.8 10.6 84.9 48.1 43.7 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.0 10.5 97.1 56.1 47.8 1.6 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.4 10.2 88.7 50.3 45.7 2.9 7.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 9.7 12.2 92.9 50.3 47.0 8.6 9.6 14.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.5 10.4 11.7 87.1 49.3 44.1 5.6 10.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.5 7.4 12.7 98.2 52.3 49.7 4.6 7.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.6 11.5 92.0 51.4 46.2 4.2 7.5 11.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.5 11.2 87.0 51.3 46.0 2.6 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.8 13.7 15.4 100.9 53.1 50.2 10.6 13.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.8 6.4 9.9 90.0 51.3 45.9 2.1 6.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------