***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.5 11.4 105.7 67.3 56.2 3.5 5.5 9.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.7 14.3 10.4 100.0 63.4 55.0 5.2 7.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.6 11.4 102.2 64.7 54.6 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.2 15.2 12.6 111.2 64.8 55.6 4.3 6.6 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.0 15.8 13.3 116.2 64.2 56.3 8.6 12.1 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.0 14.6 13.4 123.8 66.8 60.6 5.6 10.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.0 18.1 10.7 102.7 66.9 56.3 4.8 7.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 19.7 15.3 126.4 68.0 59.1 11.1 14.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.1 10.8 14.0 115.2 63.6 56.5 4.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.2 12.1 15.4 121.7 65.7 58.0 5.1 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.0 20.5 13.0 121.9 66.9 57.8 6.8 9.1 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.8 19.3 13.5 128.0 70.6 60.1 6.7 9.8 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.6 14.3 13.8 131.2 69.1 62.3 5.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.5 13.7 100.3 60.6 52.9 9.4 12.5 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.1 13.0 11.0 97.6 63.3 51.2 2.0 4.4 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.5 11.9 12.6 123.7 67.4 59.2 5.6 8.7 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.9 10.0 99.0 62.0 54.1 6.4 9.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.2 10.1 16.8 117.4 65.3 57.1 5.3 8.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.4 10.5 99.3 63.5 54.1 6.0 8.8 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.8 19.4 121.2 65.1 57.6 5.8 10.2 15.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.4 12.7 110.6 63.9 55.9 6.3 10.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.5 10.5 10.2 95.2 57.5 51.9 6.0 9.9 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.6 11.2 99.8 64.0 53.6 5.3 8.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.0 14.1 106.2 63.0 54.4 5.8 9.0 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.8 17.0 13.5 111.8 65.4 56.7 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.3 16.2 13.3 123.5 71.6 61.0 5.9 8.2 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.0 16.9 12.9 111.0 66.9 58.0 3.5 6.5 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.7 18.8 11.8 107.9 65.2 54.3 2.8 5.2 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.2 18.5 17.8 115.6 64.4 56.3 11.5 14.6 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.5 10.6 100.5 65.7 55.4 4.7 7.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------