***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 13.4 98.7 61.5 52.0 5.9 8.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.4 12.9 103.9 62.7 53.4 4.2 6.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.2 13.5 97.0 58.5 51.0 6.3 9.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 10.2 12.3 80.7 48.5 44.9 8.0 10.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.1 11.9 14.0 91.1 51.2 48.0 6.7 11.6 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 11.2 10.9 77.7 45.3 42.5 4.9 11.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.5 13.1 108.5 63.5 54.9 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.3 17.4 14.3 88.6 50.9 47.3 12.4 17.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.5 14.9 97.8 57.0 50.9 6.3 8.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.4 15.4 97.3 55.1 50.7 8.9 12.8 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.8 12.2 13.7 91.7 52.5 48.4 5.7 10.8 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.0 11.6 12.6 83.8 47.9 45.0 8.2 12.0 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.6 12.8 12.4 83.4 48.6 43.9 7.1 13.6 21.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.3 17.0 16.5 104.4 62.2 53.9 8.5 14.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 10.7 9.8 69.5 51.2 43.4 3.8 10.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.3 10.4 12.3 83.8 48.5 44.9 5.4 11.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.2 13.3 114.5 64.6 57.0 4.2 8.4 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.0 16.5 99.2 53.4 51.1 8.0 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.4 13.0 100.5 61.7 52.4 4.0 7.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 14.8 17.4 87.2 49.4 46.9 7.1 15.0 20.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.1 14.2 96.0 57.7 50.3 6.8 10.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.2 13.4 108.2 64.4 55.6 3.8 6.5 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.6 13.7 98.6 61.5 51.8 3.7 6.9 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.8 15.7 101.8 57.6 52.7 6.2 11.4 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.1 14.4 93.0 57.3 50.3 3.1 9.5 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.8 12.0 11.9 81.1 47.1 43.2 5.2 12.7 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.6 14.1 97.9 61.6 52.3 4.5 8.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.4 10.8 76.0 50.3 43.9 5.0 10.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.9 17.1 96.5 53.9 49.8 15.3 20.4 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.6 12.8 100.0 61.5 52.1 4.8 7.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------