***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 5.9 7.7 5.2 2.5 85.5 79.2 2.6 3.4 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 5.9 6.9 5.2 2.7 87.8 80.8 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 7.3 8.2 5.4 2.5 84.6 79.1 3.9 5.1 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 84.0 75.9 -0.4 0.9 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 6.9 7.7 3.5 2.2 83.8 76.5 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 6.3 7.0 2.9 2.0 79.8 74.5 3.2 4.2 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.7 5.1 2.6 87.3 80.7 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 0.7 1.2 3.2 2.0 84.0 75.7 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 7.7 8.6 4.5 2.3 84.6 77.1 4.3 5.0 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 6.9 7.6 3.9 2.2 84.4 76.3 3.5 4.5 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 7.2 8.0 3.5 2.2 83.4 76.4 3.4 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 6.9 8.0 3.3 2.0 82.2 75.2 4.0 5.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 6.7 7.3 3.2 2.0 80.4 74.4 3.4 5.1 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 7.8 8.4 5.1 2.5 85.3 78.1 4.5 5.7 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.3 3.3 2.1 81.0 76.1 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 7.5 8.2 3.2 2.1 81.5 75.5 3.9 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 5.5 6.7 5.2 2.7 89.1 81.5 1.9 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 3.9 5.3 3.8 2.0 82.2 74.9 2.0 2.7 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 6.4 7.4 5.4 2.7 86.9 80.5 3.2 4.3 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.4 2.2 1.8 81.7 74.3 -0.2 2.6 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 7.2 8.2 5.0 2.4 84.8 78.3 3.8 4.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 6.0 7.1 5.4 2.7 89.3 81.1 2.8 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 6.2 7.0 5.5 2.6 85.2 79.6 3.0 4.0 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 8.1 9.0 4.9 2.3 84.0 76.9 4.2 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 5.6 7.1 3.8 2.4 86.1 78.9 2.5 3.4 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.4 2.8 1.8 79.9 73.3 3.5 4.7 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 7.2 8.6 4.6 2.5 85.9 79.1 3.3 5.1 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 6.8 7.6 3.0 2.1 81.1 75.3 3.1 4.2 6.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.3 3.1 1.9 81.7 74.6 0.6 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 5.8 6.9 5.3 2.6 86.4 80.3 2.4 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------