***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 7.5 3.9 1.6 63.6 63.5 0.9 2.7 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.4 3.9 1.8 66.4 64.8 1.3 2.3 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.4 4.1 1.7 64.0 64.3 2.2 3.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.8 2.3 1.8 1.6 63.5 62.8 -2.1 -0.5 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.9 2.4 1.6 63.2 63.0 2.3 3.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 7.7 5.6 1.7 1.1 62.5 59.4 1.7 3.6 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.2 3.8 1.7 66.2 64.3 0.6 1.9 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 1.5 1.2 2.1 1.2 62.4 61.6 -1.6 -0.5 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.4 3.3 1.5 63.2 63.1 2.5 4.1 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.3 6.2 2.8 1.3 63.4 62.0 1.3 2.9 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 7.7 6.2 2.3 1.4 64.0 62.8 2.0 3.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.0 2.2 1.3 62.3 62.1 2.0 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 8.2 6.1 1.8 1.1 61.1 60.2 2.2 5.2 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 9.0 8.6 3.9 1.6 64.7 64.0 1.9 4.8 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 6.5 4.8 2.1 1.6 64.6 63.8 0.6 3.0 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.6 6.6 1.9 1.3 61.9 61.8 3.3 5.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.9 3.8 1.7 65.3 64.0 0.3 2.0 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.0 3.8 2.7 1.2 61.9 61.4 0.6 1.9 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.7 4.1 1.8 66.9 65.1 0.9 2.8 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 4.3 3.6 1.2 1.0 58.0 60.2 -1.8 2.2 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.1 3.7 1.6 63.4 63.5 2.2 3.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.8 4.0 1.8 66.0 64.8 0.9 2.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 5.9 7.2 4.3 1.8 67.5 65.2 0.9 2.7 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 9.7 9.3 3.7 1.5 64.9 62.9 2.4 6.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.2 6.0 2.5 1.5 63.1 63.0 1.4 3.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 7.0 5.0 1.6 1.0 60.1 59.7 2.3 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.8 3.3 1.5 63.7 63.0 2.4 3.9 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.8 2.0 1.6 64.3 63.3 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.0 2.1 1.2 59.8 61.2 0.0 2.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 6.4 7.0 4.0 1.7 65.8 64.8 0.8 2.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------