***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.0 4.9 2.5 74.1 69.7 1.1 5.4 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 6.2 6.0 4.8 2.5 72.2 69.7 1.1 4.8 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 8.4 8.8 5.0 2.5 72.8 68.9 2.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 3.9 4.2 2.5 2.2 72.3 68.6 -1.1 0.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 8.2 7.8 3.1 2.2 70.8 67.5 1.8 5.2 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.0 2.4 2.0 69.3 66.4 1.6 3.5 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 5.8 6.0 4.7 2.5 73.6 70.0 0.6 4.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 0.7 0.5 2.6 1.9 67.6 66.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 8.7 9.1 4.0 2.3 71.2 67.3 3.4 6.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 7.7 7.6 3.3 2.0 68.5 66.2 3.2 5.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 8.2 8.4 2.9 2.1 69.4 66.8 2.3 5.3 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 8.4 8.8 2.7 1.9 68.8 66.3 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.3 8.7 2.4 1.9 70.0 65.9 1.6 4.6 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 8.7 8.9 4.5 2.2 69.5 66.6 4.0 6.2 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 6.3 6.6 2.8 2.2 72.9 69.4 2.2 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 8.8 9.1 2.6 2.0 70.3 66.7 2.1 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 5.7 6.1 4.6 2.4 72.6 69.7 0.9 4.2 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 5.5 5.5 3.2 1.9 67.0 65.6 0.8 2.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 7.3 7.1 5.0 2.5 71.9 69.1 1.6 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 4.7 4.3 1.6 1.7 65.9 65.4 -1.8 3.3 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 8.3 9.1 4.5 2.4 73.7 68.4 2.8 6.0 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.6 4.8 2.3 72.0 68.3 1.6 5.2 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.8 5.1 2.4 71.3 68.3 1.1 5.5 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.5 4.3 2.2 70.3 66.6 3.9 7.0 8.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 6.4 7.0 3.4 2.3 75.5 69.4 1.5 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.3 2.3 1.8 70.3 66.5 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.8 4.2 2.4 76.4 69.6 1.8 6.4 8.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 7.6 7.8 2.7 2.2 72.6 68.5 3.3 6.2 7.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 4.9 3.8 2.5 1.8 65.7 65.5 0.0 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 6.5 6.2 4.9 2.5 72.0 69.8 1.1 4.9 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------