***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 5.9 7.3 5.2 2.1 72.6 68.7 2.3 3.3 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 6.0 7.0 5.4 2.5 75.2 71.8 1.8 3.3 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.4 8.7 5.4 2.2 70.2 68.5 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.1 71.7 70.0 -1.3 0.2 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 4.8 6.7 3.5 1.8 66.7 66.1 2.5 4.2 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 4.3 5.4 2.8 1.4 62.3 61.7 1.9 3.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.7 6.9 5.2 2.4 75.8 71.5 1.1 3.1 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -0.5 -0.2 3.0 1.4 59.9 61.3 -2.4 -0.6 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 6.1 7.6 4.4 1.8 62.5 65.0 2.6 5.6 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 5.4 6.4 3.7 1.5 60.5 62.3 2.5 5.1 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 5.7 7.3 3.4 1.7 62.6 64.7 2.7 5.3 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 5.4 6.2 3.2 1.5 60.4 62.3 3.6 5.1 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 5.1 6.0 2.8 1.3 61.1 60.3 2.9 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 5.9 7.8 4.8 1.9 65.7 64.9 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 5.3 6.0 3.6 2.3 74.8 73.3 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 5.9 6.8 3.0 1.6 62.7 64.0 3.0 5.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 5.5 6.4 5.4 2.5 75.6 72.5 1.7 2.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 3.0 4.0 3.5 1.4 61.2 60.5 0.6 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.5 5.5 2.5 73.2 71.2 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 58.9 58.8 -0.5 1.5 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.2 7.5 4.9 2.0 67.0 66.7 3.0 4.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.8 5.6 2.5 74.8 72.0 2.2 3.3 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.5 5.5 2.3 69.3 69.4 2.4 4.1 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 6.4 8.0 4.6 1.8 64.7 63.8 3.0 5.9 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.7 6.5 3.7 2.0 71.2 68.4 2.0 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.8 5.4 2.6 1.3 61.7 60.8 2.4 4.5 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.2 8.2 4.5 2.1 71.4 68.4 3.0 4.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.9 3.4 2.1 71.8 70.6 2.2 3.8 5.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 2.7 2.9 2.8 1.2 60.1 59.6 -0.4 2.4 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.9 7.1 5.3 2.4 75.0 70.9 1.8 3.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------