***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 -0.4 1.2 0.0 2.4 87.2 80.0 -3.6 -2.5 -0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 -0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 88.2 81.8 -4.0 -2.8 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 1.2 2.1 -0.4 2.4 85.6 79.7 -1.8 -0.8 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -3.9 -3.4 -3.3 2.1 76.7 74.1 -6.7 -6.0 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 -1.1 -0.3 -2.7 2.2 79.4 75.1 -4.2 -3.1 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 -1.7 -1.4 -4.0 2.3 76.7 74.1 -5.2 -3.4 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 -0.5 0.4 0.1 2.7 87.8 82.4 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 -5.4 -5.0 -3.5 2.3 77.9 75.1 -8.3 -6.5 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 -0.4 0.9 -1.8 2.2 82.5 75.7 -3.6 -2.3 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 -1.2 -0.6 -2.8 2.3 78.7 75.1 -4.0 -3.1 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 -1.1 -0.5 -2.9 2.2 77.0 74.5 -4.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 -1.8 -1.5 -3.2 2.2 74.8 73.5 -4.8 -3.3 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -1.0 -0.6 -3.4 2.2 73.8 73.0 -4.6 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.8 2.4 82.0 77.6 -2.9 -1.6 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 -1.2 -0.8 -2.4 2.2 77.9 76.0 -4.2 -3.0 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.2 -3.5 2.1 72.4 72.3 -3.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 -1.0 0.2 0.2 2.7 89.0 82.5 -3.8 -3.0 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 -2.8 -2.4 -3.5 2.3 77.6 74.0 -6.8 -4.0 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 -0.5 0.2 -0.2 2.5 87.1 81.1 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 -4.3 -3.7 -4.5 2.4 80.1 75.7 -9.2 -6.9 -5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 -0.4 0.8 -0.8 2.3 84.2 77.7 -3.8 -2.2 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 -1.2 0.0 0.1 2.6 88.4 82.1 -3.6 -2.9 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 2.3 84.4 79.7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 -1.1 -0.7 -2.1 2.2 80.3 75.9 -4.0 -2.4 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 -0.6 -0.1 -1.9 2.3 82.5 78.1 -3.3 -2.5 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 -1.5 -0.9 -3.2 2.1 72.5 72.2 -4.2 -2.9 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 0.7 1.4 -0.8 2.4 85.3 79.7 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -2.2 -1.7 -3.0 2.1 74.5 73.6 -5.0 -3.8 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 -2.9 -2.5 -4.1 2.2 77.3 73.9 -6.1 -4.4 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 -0.1 0.7 0.0 2.5 87.4 81.3 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------