***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 0.2 1.0 -0.2 2.5 74.1 69.2 -4.6 -1.2 0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 -0.3 0.2 -0.4 2.4 77.1 69.6 -4.1 -1.5 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 1.5 1.9 -0.6 2.4 71.0 68.9 -2.5 -0.2 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -2.9 -3.6 -3.6 2.3 62.6 67.7 -7.9 -4.1 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -1.0 -3.1 2.3 64.0 67.1 -3.3 -2.5 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -2.4 -4.5 2.3 59.7 66.6 -4.9 -3.1 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 0.0 0.5 -0.3 2.5 77.4 70.0 -4.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -5.3 -5.4 -3.9 2.4 64.4 66.8 -9.7 -6.8 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 0.4 0.5 -2.1 2.4 64.9 67.7 -3.6 -1.5 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 -0.9 -1.1 -3.2 2.4 64.2 66.7 -3.3 -2.3 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -1.4 -3.3 2.4 65.3 67.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -2.2 -3.5 2.4 63.3 66.8 -5.0 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 -1.0 -1.4 -3.9 2.4 60.9 66.9 -3.1 -2.1 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 0.5 0.3 -2.2 2.3 68.0 67.5 -3.2 -0.8 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 -0.3 -0.5 -2.8 2.4 68.2 69.9 -3.1 -2.0 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.8 -3.8 2.4 61.1 66.6 -2.8 -1.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 2.4 76.3 69.9 -4.2 -1.6 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 -2.7 -3.3 -3.9 2.3 60.2 65.1 -6.0 -3.8 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 2.4 75.2 69.4 -3.7 -1.5 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -4.7 -4.3 -5.0 2.3 65.5 66.0 -9.6 -6.8 -4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 0.2 0.5 -1.1 2.4 68.4 68.4 -3.7 -1.8 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 2.3 74.5 69.1 -4.0 -1.4 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 2.3 71.8 68.9 -3.9 -1.7 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.4 2.2 64.6 66.5 -4.0 -2.1 -0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 -0.1 0.2 -2.4 2.3 73.1 69.2 -3.0 -1.6 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 -1.2 -2.2 -3.7 2.3 63.8 67.2 -3.6 -2.7 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 0.7 1.2 -1.2 2.4 75.5 69.7 -4.3 -0.7 0.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.5 -2.1 -3.3 2.4 63.1 68.1 -4.8 -2.9 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 -2.9 -3.4 -4.4 2.2 62.3 65.3 -6.9 -5.0 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 0.1 0.6 -0.3 2.4 76.3 69.5 -4.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------