***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.3 1.7 3.6 91.1 88.4 -2.7 -1.5 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 -0.3 3.9 1.7 4.0 94.4 91.3 -2.9 -1.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.1 4.4 1.3 3.5 91.0 87.6 -1.5 -0.2 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -3.6 -3.3 -1.8 2.5 73.5 73.5 -6.6 -5.1 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 0.9 1.6 -0.5 3.2 83.5 82.6 -3.8 -1.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 0.0 0.6 -2.1 3.1 83.8 82.5 -4.1 -2.8 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 -0.2 4.0 1.9 4.1 94.3 92.3 -3.2 -1.3 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -3.5 -2.7 -1.0 3.9 90.3 87.6 -8.6 -7.4 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 1.0 2.5 0.1 3.2 85.9 84.5 -3.1 -1.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 -0.1 1.9 -0.6 3.7 88.6 86.0 -3.6 -1.9 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 0.4 1.3 -0.7 3.2 84.9 83.1 -3.2 -1.5 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 0.1 1.4 -0.9 3.4 86.7 84.9 -4.8 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 0.6 1.3 -1.0 3.2 84.9 84.2 -3.3 -2.3 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 0.4 3.9 0.5 4.1 92.8 88.7 -2.5 -1.0 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 2.3 74.6 74.6 -3.1 -1.4 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 0.3 0.8 -1.6 2.6 78.5 77.2 -2.8 -1.3 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 -0.3 3.6 2.1 4.3 96.2 93.8 -3.5 -1.4 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 -1.2 -0.1 -1.2 3.9 88.8 85.4 -5.8 -3.7 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.1 3.5 1.4 3.8 93.6 89.7 -3.4 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 -3.1 0.9 -1.8 4.4 92.5 89.1 -8.6 -5.9 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 0.8 3.1 1.1 3.4 88.2 86.6 -3.2 -1.6 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.0 4.1 2.0 4.3 96.4 93.6 -3.4 -1.9 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.0 2.2 0.8 3.4 91.9 87.1 -3.0 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 -0.6 0.4 -0.1 3.6 89.3 85.3 -3.0 -1.8 -1.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 0.7 1.8 0.3 3.2 88.1 84.8 -3.5 -1.7 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 0.1 0.8 -0.9 3.2 84.5 83.5 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 1.3 4.5 1.1 3.5 90.8 87.3 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -1.2 -1.5 2.3 70.6 71.1 -4.1 -2.7 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 -2.0 0.1 -1.8 4.0 87.0 84.5 -5.9 -4.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 0.3 3.8 1.7 3.8 92.7 89.9 -2.9 -1.2 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------