***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 23.1 22.9 29.8 69.5 31.7 30.7 23.3 32.2 50.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 24.6 25.2 28.1 73.6 34.1 34.2 24.7 35.4 46.8 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 32.7 39.5 29.8 68.3 30.5 30.6 40.8 43.8 55.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 32.7 36.2 36.6 73.4 34.9 35.0 35.2 45.3 54.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 33.4 41.7 34.4 69.0 31.4 30.8 42.3 50.7 63.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 41.9 33.8 35.5 79.2 39.3 39.2 31.8 37.8 48.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 25.3 31.6 28.0 75.0 35.1 34.8 30.1 38.0 47.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 49.7 50.6 37.4 73.5 32.7 34.2 50.7 61.9 69.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 24.0 27.7 35.3 70.1 30.8 31.4 28.5 38.8 48.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 34.6 36.6 37.3 71.8 31.7 32.9 37.0 48.1 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 33.6 36.8 34.0 70.6 32.0 33.0 38.1 45.9 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 30.2 31.9 33.9 73.1 34.1 34.4 31.3 39.2 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 35.1 39.1 35.8 73.4 35.0 34.7 38.4 45.2 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 40.7 51.3 39.3 74.6 34.3 33.5 47.5 54.8 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 30.6 47.0 39.3 84.1 47.3 42.6 33.3 47.6 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 30.4 32.7 33.9 71.6 34.4 33.9 32.6 43.0 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 24.2 27.4 28.9 76.3 35.6 35.6 26.9 34.6 44.7 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 32.8 33.7 38.8 72.5 31.6 32.7 33.8 43.3 48.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 26.7 27.6 28.9 72.9 34.1 33.6 26.3 40.6 51.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 36.6 45.7 48.2 75.0 33.3 34.1 45.6 56.9 65.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 29.8 31.5 33.1 69.3 29.3 30.6 32.7 43.3 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 25.1 28.0 30.6 76.3 35.0 35.7 27.4 36.0 42.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 25.5 28.0 31.3 73.4 36.2 33.2 27.4 37.2 44.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 37.1 40.0 35.9 71.3 32.3 32.1 40.2 51.3 56.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 29.2 26.6 33.6 68.9 28.6 30.5 27.7 43.8 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 28.2 31.7 37.7 81.5 39.8 39.6 29.8 35.8 54.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 22.8 27.1 31.1 69.6 29.7 30.8 27.4 31.7 61.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 29.1 31.8 36.0 76.9 40.1 38.0 29.8 37.9 45.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 52.0 54.3 41.4 73.3 31.7 33.1 54.6 69.2 82.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 23.1 27.1 27.9 71.2 33.9 32.9 26.6 37.0 47.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------