***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.8 6.8 65.1 42.3 37.6 1.5 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.1 5.9 65.5 45.0 40.8 1.4 3.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.8 6.9 66.2 44.0 39.0 5.0 7.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.1 8.5 73.5 51.0 40.4 3.5 7.9 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.1 8.4 70.7 49.0 39.5 3.2 6.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.0 5.8 8.1 77.0 52.4 42.1 1.2 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.4 5.9 66.2 44.6 41.0 2.5 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.2 9.8 9.2 73.4 47.9 41.0 3.9 9.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.2 8.8 71.7 50.6 39.8 1.5 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.4 9.4 73.7 49.2 40.7 0.9 5.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.6 4.0 8.3 72.7 48.4 41.0 1.0 4.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.6 4.1 8.3 74.2 49.3 41.2 1.3 4.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.3 4.8 8.2 71.8 47.7 40.8 2.0 5.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.4 9.3 74.4 49.1 42.1 6.5 10.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.8 8.7 79.6 57.3 42.7 0.9 4.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.6 6.5 8.0 72.5 50.2 41.1 1.1 6.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.7 3.9 6.4 71.4 50.6 44.1 1.2 3.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.1 10.0 76.1 50.9 41.5 1.5 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.9 6.1 65.6 44.7 40.3 3.6 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.0 11.6 70.1 47.8 40.2 2.4 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.1 6.3 7.9 68.7 47.2 39.0 2.9 6.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.8 6.9 72.9 50.7 43.4 1.9 4.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.5 6.7 67.0 44.7 40.6 2.7 7.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.0 9.0 74.7 50.5 41.7 4.2 10.0 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.1 7.9 67.0 44.0 38.1 4.3 7.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.6 8.9 80.5 51.2 43.3 1.5 4.4 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.4 7.3 67.2 42.5 38.5 2.3 5.7 8.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.9 5.3 8.4 77.3 55.2 42.1 0.4 2.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.8 10.4 74.3 48.9 41.1 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.4 6.0 63.8 43.4 39.3 2.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------