***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.3 13.2 9.7 94.2 61.5 46.1 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.2 10.0 8.4 94.6 63.2 45.2 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.3 15.5 9.9 94.7 61.1 46.7 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.9 11.3 95.7 63.2 49.6 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.7 13.5 10.9 91.3 61.3 48.3 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.2 10.7 11.0 99.9 60.9 51.8 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.7 8.4 96.2 61.7 45.6 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.4 15.4 12.6 104.7 62.6 51.3 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.2 11.6 91.7 60.1 47.6 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 11.9 12.5 98.6 61.8 50.0 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.4 10.4 10.7 94.7 61.6 50.0 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.3 10.9 101.5 61.0 51.5 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.0 13.0 10.4 92.6 57.9 49.4 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.4 12.5 13.1 101.3 62.5 49.3 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.8 13.4 11.7 101.8 66.5 51.8 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.9 10.2 92.1 58.8 50.1 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.9 7.9 89.8 60.0 44.0 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.0 13.3 100.7 61.6 50.2 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.7 8.9 96.3 63.6 46.0 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.6 16.8 107.3 62.3 50.8 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.2 10.8 93.1 60.7 47.0 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.3 8.5 92.4 61.4 44.6 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.2 10.1 99.3 63.2 47.7 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.7 11.0 12.2 98.3 61.5 49.1 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.9 12.9 10.9 94.3 59.4 46.1 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.4 11.1 103.4 61.3 51.6 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.1 11.4 9.9 92.9 59.3 45.5 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.0 10.8 95.1 63.5 50.7 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.8 14.4 102.8 61.0 50.5 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.8 8.8 95.1 63.1 45.8 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------