***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.0 11.3 96.2 57.9 51.2 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.1 15.5 11.6 110.4 65.9 54.5 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.6 10.5 11.0 91.7 58.0 50.0 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.8 14.3 12.7 99.7 62.8 53.9 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.8 11.7 87.5 57.1 50.7 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.7 15.4 12.1 111.5 64.6 56.7 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.2 11.6 113.7 66.0 54.2 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.2 11.9 92.9 58.7 51.2 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.8 12.1 88.6 57.5 50.7 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.7 12.1 91.6 59.1 51.1 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.5 11.0 87.7 58.1 49.8 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.3 10.9 91.8 60.4 51.0 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.1 10.9 88.8 56.8 48.9 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.3 15.5 14.3 102.3 60.8 53.1 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 23.3 13.5 115.2 70.3 56.7 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.5 11.1 92.1 60.1 51.5 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.2 12.1 119.3 65.8 55.3 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 12.7 92.2 59.3 50.5 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.2 11.7 106.7 63.9 54.4 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.9 15.5 95.1 58.8 51.1 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.7 10.2 11.6 88.8 57.0 50.1 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.8 12.5 113.7 64.2 55.0 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.6 12.3 104.3 60.7 54.2 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.5 12.6 92.1 58.6 49.9 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.0 11.8 89.4 57.4 48.7 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.7 16.0 13.7 114.6 67.8 56.9 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.0 11.6 95.6 58.0 50.4 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.1 17.1 12.2 103.0 65.7 54.4 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 15.7 13.5 94.2 58.6 51.0 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.5 13.7 11.2 103.3 62.9 52.9 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------