***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 2.6 4.3 2.1 19.6 23.8 21.4 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.8 2.1 21.9 26.2 21.6 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 2.8 4.1 1.9 18.0 23.5 20.4 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 6.2 8.9 4.1 29.8 31.7 29.4 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 4.2 5.1 3.4 26.8 24.0 23.9 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.8 4.6 4.3 34.3 31.0 30.1 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 3.2 2.7 2.1 22.5 28.1 22.8 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 9.8 9.4 3.7 27.6 24.0 23.5 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 3.0 4.4 2.9 24.4 23.3 22.3 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 4.8 5.4 3.3 24.5 22.0 21.3 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.8 6.0 4.0 30.8 27.8 26.4 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 5.0 3.7 3.8 30.3 27.9 26.1 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.3 6.4 45.5 35.5 34.0 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 4.5 4.6 2.5 19.1 21.2 18.6 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 11.4 8.5 5.4 43.0 46.8 41.6 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 4.8 4.3 4.7 35.0 31.4 29.8 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.5 24.9 28.7 23.8 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 3.5 3.3 2.8 20.4 21.2 19.1 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 1.7 1.2 2.1 21.0 24.8 20.8 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 4.9 4.2 4.4 28.1 24.4 23.7 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 3.4 3.8 2.8 24.0 24.7 22.7 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.0 2.7 26.0 27.8 24.0 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 2.3 2.0 2.1 20.2 24.8 20.7 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 3.9 4.7 2.1 17.4 21.4 18.6 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 2.7 1.2 3.0 24.7 24.8 23.1 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 4.5 5.7 4.0 32.0 28.4 28.3 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 2.8 2.5 2.2 20.4 23.9 21.3 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.7 7.2 4.7 36.6 39.2 35.3 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 6.6 9.8 3.1 21.8 22.3 20.2 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 2.1 2.4 1.9 19.8 25.2 21.1 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------