***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 5.9 7.0 6.5 2.8 84.1 81.3 2.6 3.6 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 5.7 6.5 6.3 2.5 80.6 77.9 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 7.1 7.9 6.9 2.7 82.5 79.0 4.0 5.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 2.1 2.2 3.5 2.2 75.6 74.0 -0.5 0.6 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 6.7 7.5 5.3 2.6 83.5 79.2 3.4 4.7 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 6.2 7.3 4.6 2.6 84.9 79.5 3.3 4.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.3 6.3 2.6 83.9 80.1 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 0.8 1.1 5.0 2.5 83.3 78.4 -1.6 -0.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 7.6 8.3 6.0 2.6 82.8 78.1 4.3 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 6.6 7.4 5.6 2.6 83.3 78.3 3.7 4.5 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 7.3 7.9 5.6 2.7 84.4 79.8 3.7 4.7 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 7.2 7.9 5.2 2.5 83.5 78.8 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 7.0 7.7 5.3 2.7 85.6 80.9 3.8 5.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 7.3 8.1 6.6 2.5 80.0 76.1 4.6 5.6 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.8 4.4 1.9 70.6 70.8 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 7.7 8.4 5.2 2.8 84.8 80.7 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 5.3 6.1 6.0 2.3 79.4 77.1 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 3.9 5.3 5.7 2.7 83.8 78.8 1.8 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 6.1 6.7 6.4 2.4 78.9 77.0 3.1 4.2 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 4.1 4.5 4.5 2.7 84.6 80.3 0.0 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 7.0 7.8 6.6 2.7 83.4 79.4 3.9 5.0 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.5 6.1 6.1 2.1 76.1 74.8 2.8 3.9 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 6.1 6.7 6.6 2.4 78.1 76.1 3.1 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.6 6.5 2.6 81.9 77.6 4.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 5.9 6.5 5.5 2.7 83.8 80.6 2.4 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 6.2 6.5 4.6 2.4 84.0 80.1 3.4 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 7.2 8.3 6.3 2.8 84.7 82.0 3.3 5.1 6.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.1 4.0 2.1 73.6 72.5 3.2 4.8 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 3.9 4.6 5.3 2.7 84.8 79.9 0.7 2.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.5 6.4 2.6 82.7 79.3 2.5 3.7 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------