***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.5 6.5 5.2 1.9 66.6 63.6 0.1 3.2 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.0 6.1 5.3 1.9 67.6 62.7 0.3 2.7 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.5 8.1 5.6 1.9 66.8 62.5 2.7 4.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.4 2.0 2.5 1.6 62.0 61.5 -2.0 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.4 3.8 1.8 63.9 62.4 1.8 4.1 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.7 3.2 1.6 63.7 60.1 1.2 4.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.0 5.3 5.3 1.9 68.8 63.8 0.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.3 0.4 3.7 1.7 64.2 61.5 -2.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.1 4.6 1.8 64.7 61.9 2.7 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.7 4.2 1.8 64.6 61.4 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 3.8 1.7 64.2 61.7 1.8 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.6 3.8 1.6 64.1 61.5 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.2 3.3 1.7 64.4 61.6 1.4 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.5 5.4 1.9 64.6 61.2 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.2 3.0 1.3 58.3 58.6 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.8 3.4 1.7 64.4 61.5 2.4 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.8 5.7 5.4 1.8 68.6 62.6 0.0 2.7 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.7 4.4 1.8 64.4 61.7 0.4 2.6 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.5 7.3 5.5 1.8 67.0 62.0 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.8 3.5 3.0 1.8 63.9 62.4 -0.9 1.9 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 7.5 5.1 1.8 64.9 62.4 2.4 4.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.2 6.8 5.4 1.7 67.3 61.5 0.2 2.8 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.2 6.3 5.8 1.8 65.7 61.3 1.7 3.1 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.6 9.4 5.2 1.8 65.1 61.9 3.0 5.3 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.8 3.8 1.8 66.1 63.5 1.2 3.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.6 3.3 1.7 65.1 63.0 2.9 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.6 7.7 4.8 1.9 67.9 63.7 2.3 4.5 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.4 6.0 2.7 1.5 60.4 59.8 1.4 3.0 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.5 4.0 1.8 64.0 62.0 0.8 2.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.3 6.5 5.3 1.9 67.8 63.0 0.4 3.2 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------